# Acrylonitrile: Cycles

One of the wildest intermediates: 2021 highs, then a slump

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

ACN is one of the most volatile intermediates. Its margin over propylene and ammonia expands when ABS and acrylic fibre demand is strong and plants are down, as in 2021, and collapses when China adds capacity, as in 2023-2026. The floor is the cash cost of integrated Chinese producers; the ceiling is set by downstream ABS and fibre margins. Closures in Thailand, Japan and the US are the industry's response to the latest trough.
 The spread to watch **ACN minus feedstock (1.1 x propylene + 0.48 x ammonia)**

With propylene in the $700s/t in Asia (ChemOrbis Dec 2025, via propylene tile) and ammonia about $400/t (indicative), feedstock cost was about $1,000/t, so ACN at $1,040-1,050/t in February 2026 left little margin before by-product credits.

#### Booms and busts

1. 2021

Post-COVID consumer goods boom lifted ABS and fibre demand; US winter storm outages tightened supply.

not published here (prices reached multi-year highs, indicative)

2. 2023-2024

Chinese additions (Jiangsu Sailboat No. 4, others) and weak ABS margins pushed rates down; PTTAC closed its 200 kt plant; US exports fell from 239 kt to 127 kt.

not published here

3. 2025

New Chinese capacity from May 2025 drove oversupply; Cornerstone mothballed 370 kt in the US.

CFR Far East Asia $1.267/kg (Jan 2025) to about $1.08/kg (Q4 2025); CFR South Asia $1.301/kg to about $1.05/kg (Alchempro)

4. Early 2026

Weak ABS and fibre demand; forecasts for further softening.

Week to 18 Feb 2026: CFR FE Asia $1.05/kg, CFR South Asia $1.04/kg, FOB US Gulf $1.03/kg, FOB China $1.01/kg; 3-month forecast $0.96-1.04/kg (Alchempro)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Chinese capacity additions.** China has added most new capacity and turned from importer to exporter
- **ABS demand (appliances, autos, electronics).** largest outlet
- **Propylene prices.** 60-70% of cost
- **Acrylic fibre decline.** a shrinking outlet as polyester gains

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **ACN CFR FE Asia and CFR South Asia** | Asian benchmarks | ICIS, S&P Global Platts, Alchempro, ChemAnalyst |
| **ACN minus propylene spread** | producer margin | ICIS, Platts |
| **China operating rates** | supply signal | ICIS, Mysteel |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/acrylonitrile/links/index.md)