# Ammonium nitrate: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/correlation/ Ammonium nitrate is made by neutralising nitric acid with ammonia, both made from natural gas. It is used as a fertiliser in Europe and elsewhere and as the main commercial explosive in mining, so farm and mining demand both matter. Proxy **US PPI: nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing** index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 There is no free public price for ammonium nitrate itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item. #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### Ammonium nitrate and Natural gas Monthly changes 0.13 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.78 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.11 monthly changes Lead or lag +1 mo Natural gas tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.28) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Ammonium nitrate ≈ 162.1 × (Natural gas)^0.36 R² 0.58 On this fit, a 10% higher natural gas price goes with a 3.5% higher ammonium nitrate price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and $/mmbtu. Chart: Ammonium nitrate and Natural gas prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: Ammonium nitrate price against Natural gas price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Chemical [NH3 Ammonia](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonia/)Feedstock Ammonia is both a direct input and the raw material for the nitric acid, so it sets nearly all of the cost. Both share the same nitrogen fertiliser proxy here, so no separate statistics are shown. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Chemical [HNO3 Nitric acid](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/)Feedstock Nitric acid, made by burning ammonia over platinum gauzes, is neutralised to make the salt. It shares the same proxy index here, so no separate statistics are shown. Most nitric acid plants are built next to the ammonium nitrate units they feed. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Energy [Gas Natural gas](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/natural_gas/)Feedstock cost 0.13 Gas sets ammonia cost, which flows straight through. European gas moves with the nitrogen fertiliser proxy at 0.13 monthly and 0.78 yearly, as plant contracts pass costs on with a lag. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [Ur Urea](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/urea/)Substitute 0.27 Farmers can choose between urea and ammonium nitrate as a nitrogen source, so their prices are compared per unit of nitrogen. Middle East urea moves with the proxy at 0.27 monthly and 0.82 yearly. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Tc Thermal coal](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/)Mining demand 0.22 Opencast coal and metal mines blast with ammonium nitrate fuel oil mixtures, so mining activity adds demand. Australian coal moves with the proxy at 0.22 monthly and 0.74 yearly, partly through the shared energy cycle. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Exp Explosives and propellants](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_propellants/)Explosives 0.15 Commercial explosives are mostly ammonium nitrate based, so explosive makers pass its cost on. The explosives manufacturing index moves with the proxy at 0.15 monthly and 0.60 yearly. Safety rules after past port explosions also raise storage and transport costs. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/overview/index.md) - [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/routes/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/production/index.md) - [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/feedstocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/movement/index.md) - [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/regulation/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/links/index.md)