# Ammonium nitrate: Cycles Gas shocks, sanctions and the Beirut aftershock Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/cycles/ What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track. AN prices follow the nitrogen complex: they rise and fall with urea and ammonia, which in turn follow gas. AN usually trades at a premium per unit of N to urea in Europe because of agronomic value, and that premium widens when urea is cheap. Spikes came with the 2008 and 2021-22 gas shocks and the 2026 Hormuz near-closure. Technical AN for mining follows mining activity and is priced more on contracts. Security incidents and sanctions periodically reshape trade, as after Beirut in 2020 and with EU tariffs on Russian AN from 2025. The spread to watch **AN minus ammonia (and AN premium to urea per unit N)** AN price minus 0.44 t ammonia. 2024: $424/t export average minus 0.44 x about $485/t ammonia (USGS 2024 US Gulf average of $440/short t) leaves about $210/t for nitric acid conversion and margin (indicative). Per unit N, AN at $424/t is about $1,245/t N against urea at $338/t (World Bank 2024) = $735/t N. #### Booms and busts 1. 2021-2022 European gas rose about tenfold and Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted Black Sea trade; EU producers curtailed output. IndexBox's average AN export price peaked at $669/t (year not stated, consistent with 2022); World Bank urea peaked at $925/t (Apr 2022) 2. 2023-2024 Gas fell back and nitrogen prices eased; Russia kept exporting, mostly to Brazil and its neighbours. average AN export price $424/t in 2024, down 3.5% (IndexBox) 3. 2025-2026 EU tariffs on Russian fertilisers from July 2025, CBAM from 2026 and the Hormuz near-closure kept AN prices high (CRU, July 2026). World Bank urea rose from $415/t (Jan 2026) to $857/t (Apr 2026), then $407.5/t (Sep 2026); AN-specific 2026 prices not found 4. August 2020 About 2,750 t of AN stored for years at Beirut port exploded, killing over 200 people; countries including India tightened storage audits (indicative). no price effect; regulatory shock #### What drives the cycle - **Gas and ammonia prices.** Ammonia is most of the cost; European gas sets the marginal producer. - **Mining activity.** Coal, iron ore and gold mining drive technical AN; India's coal output growth is a major driver. - **Sanctions and tariffs on Russia.** Russia is about 37% of export volume; EU tariffs redirect trade. - **Security regulation.** Licensing and storage rules limit who can hold AN and raise handling costs. #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **AN and CAN prices FOB Baltic/Black Sea, CIF NW Europe, CFR Brazil** | main fertiliser benchmarks | Argus, CRU, ICIS, Profercy | | **TTF gas and Tampa ammonia** | cost drivers | World Bank; Argus; CRU | | **India coal production** | technical AN demand | Ministry of Coal | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/correlation/index.md) - [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/routes/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/production/index.md) - [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/feedstocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/movement/index.md) - [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/regulation/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonium_nitrate/links/index.md)