# Autocatalysts: Cycles

How palladium and rhodium spiked, then crashed by 2024

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

The autocatalyst business has two cycles. The metal cycle is violent: palladium and rhodium spiked in 2021 and collapsed by 2024, then rallied in 2025-2026. Because metal is passed through, coaters' profit tracks vehicle output and rule changes rather than metal prices, though metal leasing and recycling margins swing with prices. The structural turn is the peak in combustion-engine output: Umicore says it has been reached, and JM plans on falling vehicle volumes while raising margins. The floor is hybrid and truck demand; the ceiling is substitution when one metal gets too dear.
 The spread to watch **Coating margin excluding metal**

Margin on sales excluding precious metals: JM Clean Air 14.5% operating margin (FY2025/26); Umicore Catalysis about 27% EBITDA margin (2025). Metal is quoted separately at LBMA or dealer prices.

#### Booms and busts

1. 2016-2021

After the 2015 diesel scandal Europe shifted to petrol, and China 6 and Euro 6 raised loadings. Palladium and rhodium ran into deficit.

Palladium averaged $2,419/oz and rhodium $20,254/oz in 2021 (USGS MCS 2026)

2. 2022-2024

Thrifting, platinum substitution and battery cars cut demand; prices collapsed.

Palladium average $995/oz and rhodium $4,660/oz in 2024 (USGS MCS 2026)

3. 2024/25-2025/26

JM Clean Air sales fell with weaker truck and diesel output, but cost cuts and pricing lifted margin. Umicore Catalysis held revenue flat and raised EBITDA 4%.

JM Clean Air sales £2,319 million to £2,123 million, operating profit £273 million to £307 million (margin 11.8% to 14.5%); Umicore Catalysis adjusted EBITDA €450 million (2025) (company results)

4. 2025-2026

Falling South African supply, US duties on Russian palladium and investor buying lifted metals.

Platinum from $949/oz (Jan 2025) to $2,434/oz (Jan 2026), $1,784/oz in Sep 2026 (World Bank); palladium about $1,050/oz spot around 23 Oct 2026 (Mining.com)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Light and heavy vehicle production.** Volume driver; JM assumes a 3% fall in light-duty output in 2026/27.
- **Electric vehicle share.** Each battery car removes a catalyst; hybrids keep one.
- **Emission rules.** Euro 7, China 6b, US EPA 2027 trucks and India BS-VI stage 2 raise content per vehicle.
- **PGM prices.** Drive substitution between palladium and platinum and recycling flows.
- **Recycling.** Scrap converter flows set secondary supply, about 29% of rhodium demand in 2025.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Light vehicle production by powertrain** | demand | S&P Global Mobility; SIAM (India) |
| **PGM supply-demand balances** | metal prices | Johnson Matthey PGM Market Report; WPIC Platinum Quarterly |
| **JM Clean Air and Umicore Catalysis margins** | fabricator profitability | company results |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/links/index.md)