# Bio-based polyethylene and MEG: Cycles

When oil prices rise, the green premium shrinks

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

Bio-PE has no public price series. Its economics depend on the gap between Brazilian ethanol and fossil PE prices. When oil and fossil PE are expensive (2008, 2011-2014, 2022, early 2026) the premium shrinks; when PE is cheap and ethanol dear, it widens and projects stall. Braskem has expanded only once since 2010 (2023, +60 kt). Plans for a Thai plant have not reached a confirmed investment decision in sources reached. Demand comes from brand owners with fossil-carbon or bio-content targets, which have proved stickier than price-based buying.
 The spread to watch **Ethanol cost per t ethylene versus fossil ethylene or PE price**

About 2.2 m3 ethanol per t ethylene (indicative) times Brazilian hydrous ethanol price, against fossil ethylene; not published by Braskem.

#### Booms and busts

1. 2010

Braskem started Triunfo at 200 kt/yr as oil traded near $80/bbl and Brazilian ethanol was cheap (indicative).

not public

2. 2023

Braskem expanded Triunfo by 30% to 260 kt for $87 million and signed an MoU for 200 kt in Thailand.

not public

3. 2025-2026

Fossil PE fell to $830/t (LLDPE CFR South Asia, Dec 2025), widening the bio premium; then the 2026 oil shock lifted LLDPE to $1,470-1,550/t CFR India (Apr 2026), narrowing it.

fossil benchmarks from Platts and Polymerupdate via polyethylene tile

#### What drives the cycle

- **Brazilian ethanol price.** Most of bio-ethylene cash cost.
- **Fossil PE price.** Sets the premium buyers must pay.
- **Brand commitments and labelling rules.** Demand rests on buyers valuing bio content and lower carbon.
- **Mass-balance acceptance.** Cheaper mass-balance products compete with physically bio-based PE.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Braskem quarterly results (Brazil segment, green PE sales)** | Only listed pure source | Braskem investor relations |
| **Brazilian hydrous ethanol price** | Feedstock | CEPEA/ESALQ |
| **Fossil PE prices CFR Asia** | Comparison | Platts, ICIS, Polymerupdate |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/bio_pe/links/index.md)