# Carbon black: Cycles

Steady margins in a cyclical tyre market

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

Most rubber black is sold on contracts with quarterly feedstock pass-through, so producers' margins per tonne are more stable than the commodity price. The cycle shows up in volumes (tyre demand, auto production) and in margin steps when capacity is tight or imports surge. Price ceilings come from import parity and silica substitution; the floor from feedstock cost. Specialty grades command margins two to three times rubber grades.
 The spread to watch **Carbon black price minus feedstock oil cost (EBITDA per tonne)**

Producers report EBITDA per tonne; PCBL's was Rs 6,984 (FY2015), Rs 10,555 (FY2018), Rs 13,464 (FY2021), and about Rs 17,000 guided for FY2027.

#### Booms and busts

1. 2018

Chinese environmental closures and strong tyre demand tightened supply; prices rose.

European Rubber Journal Nov/Dec 2018 reported prices rising amid strong demand (level not published here)

2. 2020-2021

COVID collapse then recovery. India's anti-dumping duty on China ($494/t) and Russia ($36.17/t) recommended for extension in Dec 2020 was rejected by the Finance Ministry and expired on 31 Dec 2020.

PCBL EBITDA rose to Rs 13,464/t in FY2021 from Rs 6,984/t in FY2015

3. 2022-2024

Sanctions redirected Russian black to India and Turkey; Western producers raised hard-black margins; PCBL and Birla expanded.

not published here

4. 2026

Russian refinery disruptions cut Russian imports into India by about 60% in H1 2026; Chinese suppliers raised prices.

imports from China about $1.3/kg versus about $1.0/kg for Russian black; PCBL guides FY2027 EBITDA of about Rs 17,000/t (PL Capital, Sep 2026)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Tyre production.** 73% of demand; replacement tyres are steadier than new-vehicle tyres
- **Feedstock oil prices.** two-thirds of cost; passed through with a lag
- **Trade flows and sanctions.** Russian and Chinese exports set Indian import parity
- **Specialty and battery demand.** higher-margin growth

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **EBITDA per tonne of listed producers (PCBL, Cabot, Orion)** | best public margin gauge | company results |
| **Tyre production and replacement demand** | volume driver | ATMA (India), USTMA, ETRMA |
| **Fuel oil and decant oil prices** | feedstock cost | Argus, Platts |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/links/index.md)