# Citric acid: Cycles

Maize, coal and Chinese capacity drive the swings

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

Citric acid behaves like a commodity. Prices follow Chinese maize and energy costs and Chinese capacity additions, with export prices swinging by half or more over a few years (indicative). Demand grows steadily with beverages and detergents, so most cycles come from supply. The floor is the cash cost of the largest Chinese plants; the ceiling is set by substitution with other acids and by restarts of idle Chinese lines. Western prices sit above Chinese levels because of anti-dumping duties. Public price series are thin, so input prices and Chinese producers' margins are the practical gauge.
 The spread to watch **Citric acid price minus sugar cost**

Price minus about 1.2 x glucose or sugar cost per tonne is the gross margin. Glucose in China tracks maize at roughly RMB 2,100-2,500/t (2024-2026, Faxian Gongchang amino acid report); citric prices are not public in sources reached.

#### Booms and busts

1. 2008-2009

EU and US imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese citric acid after a surge of low-priced exports, splitting the market into a duty-protected West and a Chinese-priced rest of world.

price numbers not public in sources reached

2. 2021-2022

Maize, coal and freight costs rose and Chinese power rationing in late 2021 cut output; export prices rose sharply before easing in 2022-2023 (indicative).

World Bank maize rose from $144/t (May 2020) to $348/t (Apr 2022) (maize tile); citric export prices roughly doubled (indicative)

3. 2023-2025

New Chinese capacity and weaker demand pushed export prices back down towards cash cost (indicative).

maize fell to $175/t in 2025 in 2010 dollars (World Bank via maize tile); citric export prices of about $700-900/t (indicative)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Chinese maize and coal prices.** Set the cost of glucose and steam for most of the world's capacity.
- **Chinese capacity and export policy.** New lines and changes in export VAT rebates move world supply.
- **Trade defence.** EU and US anti-dumping duties keep Western prices above Asian levels.
- **Beverage and detergent demand.** Steady growth of about 4-6% a year in value (TBRC; Fortune).

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **China citric acid export volumes and unit values (HS 291814)** | Best public price signal | China Customs; UN Comtrade |
| **Chinese maize price (Dalian futures)** | Main feedstock | Dalian Commodity Exchange |
| **Jungbunzlauer and COFCO Biotechnology results** | Margin cycle | company reports |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/citric_acid/links/index.md)