# DAP and MAP: Cycles

Three great price spikes in fifty years

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

DAP has spiked hard three times in fifty years, each time when energy, sulphur and ammonia costs jumped together with strong grain prices and export curbs. The World Bank DAP price (spot, FOB US Gulf) went from $105/t in January 1973 to $408.8/t in December 1974, to $1,075.8/t in July 2008, and to $954/t in April 2022. Each spike reversed within one to two years as farmers cut application. The floor is set by the cash cost of non-integrated producers, who need DAP to cover acid, ammonia and sulphur; the ceiling is farm affordability, measured by the DAP-to-grain price ratio. Since 2021 Chinese export limits have kept prices higher for longer.
 The spread to watch **DAP minus raw materials (stripping margin)**

DAP price minus 1.7 t rock, 0.4 t sulphur and 0.22 t ammonia. Indicative for September 2026: $800.6 minus about $289 rock ($170/t), $285 sulphur ($694/t) and $109 ammonia ($496/t) leaves about $120/t for conversion and profit, thin by historical standards. Basis: World Bank Oct 2026, Tampa sulphur Q3 2026, USGS 2025 ammonia average.

#### Booms and busts

1. 1973-1975

Oil shock, grain boom and Morocco's tripling of rock prices sent all phosphate prices up; demand then collapsed as farmers deferred buying.

World Bank DAP rose from $105/t (Jan 1973) to $408.8/t (Dec 1974), then fell to $155/t (Dec 1975)

2. 2007-2009

Biofuel-driven grain boom, record sulphur and ammonia prices and Chinese export taxes, then the financial crisis.

DAP rose from $249.2/t (Jan 2007) to a record $1,075.8/t (Jul 2008), then fell to $256.1/t (Jun 2009)

3. 2014-2016

New Saudi and Moroccan capacity, cheap ammonia and weak crop prices pushed DAP down.

DAP fell from $486.5/t (Mar 2014) to $296.6/t (Dec 2016)

4. 2021-2023

European gas shock, Chinese export curbs from late 2021 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

DAP rose from $263/t (May 2020) to $954/t (Apr 2022), then fell to $454.6/t (Jun 2023)

5. 2025-2026

Chinese export windows were narrow, sulphur rallied on nickel and LFP demand, then the Hormuz near-closure from late February 2026 hit Gulf sulphur, ammonia and DAP.

DAP rose from $522/t (May 2024) to $795.1/t (Aug 2025) and $800.6/t (Sep 2026); CFR India peaked at $814/t in Aug 2025 (CRU)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Sulphur and ammonia prices.** Together they were roughly half of DAP raw material cost in 2026; Hormuz carries much of the traded sulphur and ammonia.
- **Chinese export licences.** China is the largest producer; when it shuts the export window, India and South Asia must buy from Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Russia at higher prices.
- **India's subsidy and tender timing.** India buys about 6 Mt a year; NBS rates decide how much importers can pay, and big tenders reset world prices.
- **Grain prices and farm affordability.** Farmers can skip P for a season, so high DAP-to-grain ratios cut demand fast, as in Brazil in 2025.
- **Trade duties.** US countervailing duties on Moroccan and Russian phosphate kept US prices above world levels; some were suspended in June 2026.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **World Bank DAP (FOB US Gulf) monthly** | long free public series | World Bank Pink Sheet |
| **DAP CFR India, FOB Morocco, MAP CFR Brazil** | main traded benchmarks | Argus, CRU, Profercy |
| **OCP-India phosphoric acid quarterly contract** | sets Indian granulator costs | Argus; Indian press |
| **Tampa sulphur and ammonia contracts** | input costs | Argus, CRU |
| **China phosphate export volumes** | shows effect of licences | China General Administration of Customs |
| **India DAP stocks, sales and imports** | largest buyer's balance | Department of Fertilizers; Fertiliser Association of India |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/dap_map/links/index.md)