# Furfural and furanics (FDCA): Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/correlation/ Furfural is made by cooking corncobs or bagasse with acid, mostly in China, so farm residues, steam costs and Chinese environmental checks set its price. Newer sugar-based furanics such as FDCA are priced on contracts while plants scale up. No public price Furfural and furanics (FDCA) has no public monthly price series: Sold on contracts and Chinese quotes; no free public price. #### What its price moves with Commodity [Mz Maize](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/maize/)Feedstock Chinese furfural plants use corncobs left after maize harvests. The cob price follows the corn crop and competing uses as fuel and feed, and poor harvests or collection problems tighten supply. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Commodity [Su Sugar](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/)Feedstock Bagasse from cane mills is the other main furfural feedstock, and FDCA plants use fructose from sugar. Sugar output therefore sets how much residue is available and the cost of the newer route. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Energy [Bag Bagasse and black-liquor cogeneration](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_bio_cogen/)Competing use Sugar mills burn bagasse to make their own steam and power, so furfural makers must outbid that fuel value. High power prices make mills keep their bagasse for cogeneration. This competing use puts a floor under the feedstock cost. No public price for bagasse and black-liquor cogeneration, so the link is explained in words only. Chemical [PET PET resin](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pet/)Substitute FDCA is made into PEF, a bio-based plastic designed to replace PET in bottles and films with better gas barrier. The price of PET sets how much of a premium PEF can carry. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Chemical [Str Starch and cellulose derivatives](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/starch_derivatives/)Feedstock FDCA routes start from fructose or glucose made from starch, so starch milling links the new furanics to maize. Cheap glucose syrup is needed for FDCA to compete at scale. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Energy [Ref Refining and reforming](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_refining/)Product use Refineries use furfural as a solvent to extract aromatics from lubricating oil base stocks. This steady industrial demand links part of the market to refinery base oil output. It is a mature use that does not depend on new plants. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/overview/index.md) - [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/routes/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/production/index.md) - [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/feedstocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/movement/index.md) - [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/regulation/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/furanics/links/index.md)