# High-density polyethylene: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/correlation/ HDPE is polymerised from ethylene with a small amount of comonomer and used in bottles, pipes, crates and film. Ethylene sets most of its cost, while prices also reflect packaging and construction demand and large exports from the US and Middle East. Proxy **US PPI: thermoplastic resins and plastics materials** index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 There is no free public price for high-density polyethylene itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item. #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### High-density polyethylene and Ethylene Monthly changes 0.71 strong correlation 12-month changes 0.89 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.85 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 High-density polyethylene ≈ 100.1 × (Ethylene)^0.17 R² 0.09 On this fit, a 10% higher ethylene price goes with a 1.6% higher high-density polyethylene price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and index (BLS base period). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide. Chart: High-density polyethylene and Ethylene prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: High-density polyethylene price against Ethylene price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Chemical [C2H4 Ethylene](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ethylene/)Feedstock 0.71 Ethylene is almost all of the raw material, so HDPE is priced as a margin over it. The petrochemical proxy moves with the resin proxy at 0.71 monthly and 0.89 yearly, and closely over the last five years. strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Gas Natural gas](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/natural_gas/)Feedstock cost 0.11 US and Middle East crackers run on ethane from gas, which makes them low-cost HDPE exporters. European gas moves with the resin proxy at 0.11 monthly and 0.75 yearly, little monthly tie but a strong yearly one. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [LLDPE Polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE)](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polyethylene/)Substitute HDPE competes with LDPE and LLDPE in film and some moulding uses. They share the same proxy index here, so no separate statistics are shown for this pair. Producers shift reactor output between the grades as their margins diverge. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Energy [GP Gas pipelines and city gas](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_gas_pipelines/)End use 0.06 HDPE pipe carries much of the gas and water in city distribution networks. The proxy here is a delivered gas price, so it measures gas cost more than pipe demand: 0.06 monthly and 0.62 yearly. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Oil Crude oil](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/crude_oil/)Feedstock cost 0.24 Naphtha crackers in Asia and Europe tie HDPE costs to crude, and oil-to-gas spreads decide who is the marginal producer. Brent moves with the resin proxy at 0.24 monthly and 0.72 yearly. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/overview/index.md) - [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/routes/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/production/index.md) - [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/feedstocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/movement/index.md) - [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/regulation/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hdpe/links/index.md)