# Hydrochloric acid: Cycles

When chlorine is weak, acid floods the market

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

HCl prices are local and low. They move with chlor-alkali and isocyanate operating rates (supply) and with steel and drilling activity (demand). When chlorine demand is weak, chlor-alkali plants burn more chlorine to HCl and flood the market; when plants go down for maintenance, acid tightens quickly. The floor can be negative (producers pay to have acid removed); the ceiling is set by the cost of synthesising acid from chlorine, or by sulphuric acid substitution.
 The spread to watch **HCl price versus chlorine value**

Direct synthesis converts 0.97 t chlorine into 1 t HCl (100%), about 3 t of 33% acid. If 33% acid sells for $50/t, the chlorine netback is about $150/t of chlorine (indicative), which can beat negative merchant chlorine.

#### Booms and busts

1. 2021-2022

European chlor-alkali and isocyanate cuts during the energy crisis tightened acid supply while US drilling recovered.

not published here

2. Q1 2026

Chinese supply was ample and steel weak; prices slid.

China spot fell from about RMB 0.11/kg to RMB 0.09/kg, down about 18% (Procurement Resource)

3. Q2 2026

More than 5 Mt of Chinese chlor-alkali capacity went into maintenance in May-June; supply fell.

China about RMB 0.11/kg in April to RMB 0.15/kg in May, up about 33%; US about $152/t to $142/t (Procurement Resource)

4. Q3 2026

US steel and drilling demand supported prices; China eased.

Aug 2026: China FOB $26.80/t, US FOB $162.40/t, Germany CIF $120.40/t, India CIF $135.00/t, Japan CIF $61.12/t (Procurement Resource)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Chlor-alkali operating rates.** set by-product and synthesis supply
- **Isocyanate output.** MDI and TDI plants are the largest by-product sources
- **Steel output.** pickling is a major outlet
- **Oil and gas drilling.** well acidising drives US demand

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **HCl prices by region** | local market tightness | Procurement Resource, ChemAnalyst |
| **Chinese chlor-alkali maintenance schedule** | supply shocks | Argus, Mysteel |
| **US rig count** | acidising demand | Baker Hughes |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/hydrochloric_acid/links/index.md)