# Monoethylene glycol: Cycles

Port stocks, coal plants and a record 2020 low

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

MEG prices swing with polyester demand, Chinese port inventories and the run rates of coal-based plants. Oversupply has kept prices near cash cost for much of 2019-2025. The floor is set by Chinese coal-based and naphtha-based cash costs, around $450-500/t CFR China (indicative); the ceiling by Gulf supply disruptions and textile demand surges. Because MEG is liquid, non-hazardous and heavily traded, it is one of the few chemicals with a liquid futures market (Dalian EG).
 The spread to watch **MEG minus 0.6 x ethylene (CFR China)**

Proxy margin for naphtha-based producers. With MEG at $508/t and ethylene in the $700s/t in late 2025, the spread was near zero or negative (Argus; ChemOrbis).

#### Booms and busts

1. 2017-2018

Strong Chinese polyester demand and tight supply before the coal-MEG wave.

CFR China MEG above $1,000/t in early 2018, then fell to about $600/t by year-end (indicative, ICIS historical)

2. 2020

Covid demand collapse and port stocks above 1 Mt.

CFR China MEG near $350/t in April 2020, a record low (indicative)

3. 2025

New Chinese units (Yulong 1 Mt) and weak margins; prices drifted lower.

CFR China $508/t on 1 Oct 2025, down $11 in four weeks (Argus)

4. 2026

The 2026 Iran war disrupted Gulf exports through Hormuz; EQUATE (about 1.15 Mt/yr) declared force majeure in mid-March and SABIC on about 7 Mt/yr of glycols on 27 March (ChemOrbis, Apr 2026). MEG tracked crude.

MEG up nearly 8% in the week to 21 Aug 2026; Brent above $90/bbl on 25 Aug (ICIS via Hellenic Shipping News)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Polyester demand in China and India.** Fibre and PET take about 80% of MEG.
- **China port inventories.** Main East China ports hold stocks that signal over- or under-supply.
- **Coal-to-MEG run rates.** Coal units are the swing supply.
- **Gulf export flows.** Saudi and Kuwait supply goes through Hormuz.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **MEG CFR China spot** | Main benchmark | Argus, ICIS, Platts, CCF |
| **Dalian EG futures** | Liquid price discovery | Dalian Commodity Exchange |
| **East China MEG port stocks** | Supply signal | CCF, Mysteel |
| **Asian contract price (ACP) offers** | Term price from MEGlobal, SABIC | producer announcements via Argus/ICIS |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/meg/links/index.md)