# Nitric acid: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/correlation/ Nitric acid is made by burning ammonia with air, so its cost follows ammonia and natural gas. It is mostly used at once to make ammonium nitrate fertiliser and explosives, and for nylon and polyurethane chemicals. The series is a nitrogen fertiliser index proxy. Proxy **US PPI: nitrogenous fertilizer manufacturing** index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 There is no free public price for nitric acid itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item. #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### Nitric acid and Natural gas Monthly changes 0.13 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.78 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.11 monthly changes Lead or lag +1 mo Natural gas tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.28) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Nitric acid ≈ 162.1 × (Natural gas)^0.36 R² 0.58 On this fit, a 10% higher natural gas price goes with a 3.5% higher nitric acid price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and $/mmbtu. Chart: Nitric acid and Natural gas prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: Nitric acid price against Natural gas price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Chemical [NH3 Ammonia](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ammonia/)Feedstock Ammonia is oxidised to make nitric acid, so ammonia is almost the whole raw material cost. Both use the same nitrogen fertiliser index here, so no separate statistics are shown. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Energy [Gas Natural gas](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/natural_gas/)Energy and feedstock 0.13 Natural gas makes ammonia, which makes nitric acid, so gas is the deepest cost driver. The proxy follows European gas over a year: yearly moves correlate at 0.78, though monthly moves correlate at only 0.13. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [Ur Urea](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/urea/)Competing nitrogen product 0.27 Urea and nitric acid products like ammonium nitrate are rival nitrogen fertilisers made from the same ammonia. Prices move together over a year: monthly moves correlate at 0.27 and yearly moves at 0.82. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [PU Polyurethanes (MDI, TDI, polyols)](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polyurethanes/)Derived product 0.22 Nitric acid nitrates benzene and toluene to make the building blocks of MDI and TDI, the main polyurethane chemicals. Monthly moves correlate at 0.22 and yearly moves at 0.71, partly a shared energy cycle. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Exp Explosives and propellants](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_propellants/)Derived product 0.15 Ammonium nitrate, made from nitric acid, is the main industrial explosive for mining and quarrying. The explosives index correlates with the proxy at 0.15 for monthly moves and 0.60 for yearly moves. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [PA Nylon (PA6, PA66)](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nylon/)Derived product 0.25 Nitric acid is used to make adipic acid, a building block of nylon 66. The nylon proxy is a broad US plastics index, which correlates at 0.25 for monthly moves and 0.57 for yearly moves. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/overview/index.md) - [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/routes/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/production/index.md) - [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/feedstocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/movement/index.md) - [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/regulation/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/nitric_acid/links/index.md)