# Peptides and oligonucleotides: Cycles

How GLP-1 demand turned peptide makers into boom stocks

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

Prices are not public, so cycles show in company revenues. Peptide CDMOs boomed with GLP-1 demand from 2023. Bachem's 2025 sales rose 19.2% in local currency and it guides 35-45% for 2026. Oligonucleotide demand rose with siRNA approvals. Risks are capacity overbuild as originators make more in house, oral small-molecule GLP-1s, and price erosion when semaglutide goes generic (Canada, India, China, Brazil from 2026).
 The spread to watch **CDMO EBITDA margin**

Bachem 28.6% excluding one-offs in 2025 and low thirties guided for 2026.

#### Booms and busts

1. 2020-2022

COVID boosted nucleotide and lipid demand for mRNA vaccines; biotech funding peaked then fell.

not published

2. 2023-2025

GLP-1 shortages; CordenPharma signed about EUR 3 billion of multi-year contracts and announced EUR 900 million investment (July 2024).

Ozempic sales $13.8 billion and Mounjaro $5.16 billion in 2023 (DCAT)

3. 2025

Bachem sales CHF 695.1 million, up 19.2% in local currency; CMC development up 35.6%.

EBITDA margin 30.9% reported (Bachem)

4. 2026

Semaglutide patents expire in several markets including India; Samsung bids for PolyPeptide; WuXi AppTec put on 1260H list.

Bachem guides 35-45% growth; generic GLP-1 prices well below originator (not published)

#### What drives the cycle

- **GLP-1 patient numbers.** Each 10 million patients on semaglutide 2.4 mg needs about 1.25 t API a year (derived).
- **Oral small-molecule GLP-1s.** Could cut peptide API demand if they win share.
- **Generic entry.** Expands volume and shifts supply to Indian and Chinese makers.
- **BIOSECURE and China risk.** Moves contracts from WuXi TIDES to Western, Korean and Indian CDMOs.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Bachem and PolyPeptide half-year sales** | outsourced demand | company reports |
| **Novo and Lilly GLP-1 sales** | end demand | company reports |
| **FDA drug shortage list for GLP-1s** | supply tightness | FDA |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/peptides_oligos/links/index.md)