# PHA bioplastics: Correlation

Prices it moves with, and why

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/correlation/

PHA is grown inside bacteria fed sugar or plant oils, then extracted and dried. Its price reflects small-scale fermentation costs, the feedstock and policy-driven demand for marine-degradable packaging, and it sells well above the price of fossil plastics.
 No public price PHA bioplastics has no public monthly price series: Made by a few small firms on contract; no public price.

#### What its price moves with

 Commodity [Su Sugar](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/)Feedstock cost

Many PHA plants feed bacteria with cane or beet sugar or glucose. Feedstock is a large share of cost because yields are modest, so cheap sugar is key to closing the gap with fossil plastics.
 Not enough overlapping price history to measure.

 Commodity [Rs Rapeseed](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/)Feedstock cost

Some producers feed their bacteria canola (rapeseed) oil or waste cooking oil, which give higher yields per tonne than sugar. Vegetable oil prices, pushed up by biodiesel demand, therefore affect PHA costs.
 Not enough overlapping price history to measure.

 Chemical [PLA Lactic acid and PLA](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/lactic_acid_pla/)Competing bioplastic

PLA is the larger and cheaper bio-based plastic, but it composts only in industrial plants. PHA competes where soil or sea degradation is needed, and the PLA price caps what most buyers will pay for PHA.
 No public price for Lactic acid and PLA, so the link is explained in words only.

 Chemical [PP Polypropylene](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polypropylene/)Substitute

PHA aims to replace polypropylene and polyethylene in straws, cutlery, films and coatings. Cheap fossil resins keep PHA in niches unless bans on single-use plastics force a switch. The wide price gap is the main barrier to growth.
 Not enough overlapping price history to measure.

How to read these numbers

**Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak.

**12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs.

**Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation.

**Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months.

Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link.

Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site.

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/overview/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/cycles/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pha/links/index.md)
