# Plasticisers: Cycles

How health rules and PVC demand move plasticiser prices

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

Plasticiser prices track 2-EH and anhydride prices with a conversion spread that widens when PVC demand is strong and collapses in oversupply. China drives the cycle: its prices for DOP, DOTP and DINP follow 2-EH, and surplus Chinese material is exported when local demand is weak. The floor is the integrated producer's cash cost; the ceiling is PVC compounders switching to cheaper esters or to other polymers. Regulation adds a slow structural shift away from low phthalates.
 The spread to watch **DOP minus feedstock (0.38 t PA + 0.67 t 2-EH)**

Conversion spread per tonne of ester; levels are published by ICIS and Chinese price services but were not retrieved.

#### Booms and busts

1. 2015-2020

REACH authorisation and EU restriction of DEHP, DBP, BBP and DIBP (to 0.1% in articles from July 2020) shifted Europe to DINP, DPHP, DINCH and DOTP; US makers moved to DOTP.

orthophthalate share of world use fell from about 60-65% to just over 55% (S&P Global CEH)

2. 2021

Post-Covid demand for PVC and oxo-alcohol outages tightened 2-EH; plasticiser prices and spreads rose sharply.

not public in sources reviewed

3. 2025

Ample supply and weak demand pushed Chinese prices down and exports up; US tariffs hit EU exporters.

China DOP fell RMB 1,700-1,750/t from January to November 2025; China DOP imports down 42% and exports up 35% Jan-Sep 2025 (ResourceWise)

#### What drives the cycle

- **2-EH and isononanol prices.** Alcohol is about two-thirds of the molecule.
- **Flexible PVC demand.** Construction and cable markets, especially in China and India.
- **Regulation.** EU, US and Indian toy and medical rules move demand between esters.
- **Trade remedies.** Indian, US and other anti-dumping duties redirect flows.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **China DOP, DOTP and DINP prices** | global marker | ICIS, Chemical Weekly, SunSirs |
| **2-EH price** | main cost | ICIS, Argus |
| **Indian DOP advisory prices** | local marker | indianpetrochem.com advisory |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/plasticisers/links/index.md)