# Polycarbonate: Cycles

Record margins in 2018, then a Chinese build-out

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

PC margins swing with the spread over BPA. Between 2016 and 2018 tight supply gave record margins for Covestro and others. China then built aggressively, from 5 plants to 17, and margins collapsed to near cash cost by 2023-2025, apart from a short 2021 spike when stay-at-home demand met freight disruption. The floor is the cash cost of non-integrated producers buying BPA; the ceiling is substitution to glass, PMMA or copolyesters.
 The spread to watch **PC minus 0.9 x BPA**

Non-integrated producers need roughly $600-800/t over BPA to cover phosgene or DPC, conversion and a return (indicative). Current levels are behind paywalls; reports describe margins near cash cost in Asia in 2024-2025 (indicative).

#### Booms and busts

1. 2017-2018

Demand from electronics and cars ran ahead of capacity. Covestro reported record earnings, driven by polycarbonates (indicative).

Asian PC prices above $3,000/t at times (indicative)

2. 2021

Stay-at-home electronics demand, freight disruption and the Texas winter storm lifted prices briefly.

Asian PC around $3,500/t at the peak (indicative)

3. 2022-2025

Chinese capacity reached 3.5 Mt/yr and exports doubled to about 500 kt/yr. SABIC closed two Cartagena lines and Trinseo exited Stade.

Asian PC mostly about $1,700-2,100/t (indicative); BPA plants ran below 70% in China (BPA tile)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Chinese capacity.** China holds about 45% of capacity and has turned net exporter.
- **Phenol, acetone and BPA prices.** BPA is about three-quarters of cost.
- **Electronics and car production.** These two end uses take 55% of PC.
- **BPA regulation.** EU food-contact ban and endocrine concerns shrink some uses.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **PC CFR China and CFR India prices** | Price setter | ICIS, Polymerupdate, ChemOrbis |
| **BPA East China price and operating rate** | Feed cost | OPIS, Mysteel |
| **Covestro and SABIC segment margins** | Industry profitability | company quarterly reports |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polycarbonate/links/index.md)