# Propylene: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/correlation/ Propylene comes as a co-product of steam cracking and refinery catalytic cracking, plus purpose-built propane dehydrogenation plants. Its price follows oil and propane, and demand for polypropylene, which takes most of the output. Proxy **US PPI: petrochemical manufacturing** index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 There is no free public price for propylene itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item. #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### Propylene and Crude oil Monthly changes 0.52 moderate correlation 12-month changes 0.89 strong correlation Last 5 years 0.33 monthly changes Lead or lag +1 mo Crude oil tends to lead by 1 month (r 0.72) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Propylene ≈ 7.55 × (Crude oil)^0.71 R² 0.82 On this fit, a 10% higher crude oil price goes with a 7.0% higher propylene price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and $/bbl. Chart: Propylene and Crude oil prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: Propylene price against Crude oil price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Energy [Oil Crude oil](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/crude_oil/)Feedstock cost 0.52 Most propylene is a by-product of cracking naphtha or of refinery catalytic crackers, both priced off crude. The proxy index, which covers the wider petrochemical basket rather than propylene alone, correlates with Brent at 0.52 monthly and 0.89 yearly. moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [LPG CNG, LPG and biogas distribution](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_cng_lpg/)Feedstock cost 0.41 Propane dehydrogenation plants, a fast-growing source in China and the Middle East, turn propane straight into propylene, so the propane-propylene spread sets their margin. Propane moves with the proxy index at 0.41 monthly and 0.82 yearly. moderate co-movement month to month · 248 months Show charts Energy [Ref Refining and reforming](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_refining/)Co-product 0.68 Refinery catalytic crackers yield propylene alongside petrol, so refinery run rates and fuel margins change how much propylene reaches the market. The refinery index correlates with the proxy at 0.68 monthly and 0.90 yearly. moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [PP Polypropylene](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polypropylene/)Main product 0.71 Polypropylene takes the bulk of propylene, so packaging, car and appliance demand for the resin drives monomer pricing. The broad resin index moves with the proxy at 0.71 monthly and 0.89 yearly. strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [PO Propylene oxide](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene_oxide/)Product 0.29 Propylene oxide, made by oxidising propylene, becomes polyols for polyurethane foam. Its cost rises with propylene, but the basic organics proxy moves with the petrochemical proxy at only 0.29 monthly and 0.64 yearly, so margins absorb much of the swing. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [C2H4 Ethylene](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ethylene/)Co-product Steam crackers make ethylene and propylene together, and the split depends on feed: naphtha yields much more propylene than ethane does. Both share the same proxy index here, so no separate statistics are shown for this pair. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/overview/index.md) - [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/routes/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/production/index.md) - [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/feedstocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/movement/index.md) - [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/regulation/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/propylene/links/index.md)