# PVC: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/correlation/ PVC is polymerised from VCM, which combines ethylene with chlorine, and in China is often made from coal via calcium carbide. Pipes, profiles and cables for construction take most output, and India imports heavily to meet pipe demand. Proxy **US PPI: thermoplastic resins and plastics materials** index (BLS base period) · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 There is no free public price for PVC itself, so this tab uses the closest public series as a stand-in. Read the numbers as an indication, not as the price of this exact item. #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### PVC and Vinyl chloride monomer Monthly changes 0.32 weak correlation 12-month changes 0.69 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.37 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 PVC ≈ 3.88 × (Vinyl chloride monomer)^0.75 R² 0.77 On this fit, a 10% higher vinyl chloride monomer price goes with a 7.4% higher PVC price over the long run. Units: index (BLS base period) and index (BLS base period). Chart: PVC and Vinyl chloride monomer prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: PVC price against Vinyl chloride monomer price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Chemical [VCM Vinyl chloride monomer](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/vcm/)Feedstock 0.32 VCM is the only monomer, so PVC is priced as a margin over it and most plants are integrated. The basic organics proxy moves with the resin proxy at 0.32 monthly and 0.69 yearly. weak co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [C2H4 Ethylene](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/ethylene/)Upstream feed 0.71 Ethylene supplies the carbon in PVC outside China. The petrochemical proxy moves with the resin proxy at 0.71 monthly and 0.89 yearly, although that reflects the broad resin index more than PVC alone. strong co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [Cl2 Chlorine](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/chlorine/)Upstream feed 0.08 Chlorine from salt electrolysis supplies most of PVC's weight, and it is made together with caustic soda. The alkalies index moves with the resin proxy at only 0.08 monthly and 0.08 yearly, as that index also covers caustic soda and soda ash. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Tc Thermal coal](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/thermal_coal/)Alternative route 0.20 Chinese carbide-route PVC uses coal and much electricity, so Chinese coal costs set the price of the marginal Asian tonne, a key reference for Indian importers. Australian coal moves with the resin proxy at 0.20 monthly and 0.67 yearly. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [HI Energy-intensive industry](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_heavy_industry/)Power cost −0.01 Chlor-alkali cells and carbide furnaces use large amounts of electricity. The US industrial power index does not move with the resin proxy, -0.01 monthly, because power is bought on long contracts. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/overview/index.md) - [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/routes/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/production/index.md) - [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/feedstocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/movement/index.md) - [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/regulation/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/pvc/links/index.md)