# Styrene-butadiene rubber: Cycles

How a butadiene shortage sent rubber soaring

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

SBR prices follow butadiene with a lag and a conversion margin that widens when tyre demand is strong and narrows when Chinese supply surges. Butadiene itself is volatile because it is a cracker by-product. Natural rubber prices set the ceiling: when NR is cheap, tyre makers use more of it. The floor is the cash cost of non-integrated producers. In 2025 butadiene fell steadily and SBR followed, with commodity grades weak and advanced grades firm (GlobalData).
 The spread to watch **ESBR minus (0.76 x butadiene + 0.24 x styrene)**

At late-2025 to early-2026 Asian prices the monomer cost is about $1,080/t (derived). ESBR 1502 typically needs $300-500/t over monomers to cover conversion (indicative). Current spreads are behind paywalls (ICIS, IMARC, SunSirs).

#### Booms and busts

1. 2011

Butadiene shortage after the shift to ethane cracking in the US, strong Chinese car sales and expensive natural rubber.

butadiene CFR NE Asia peaked near $4,000/t in mid-2011 (indicative, butadiene tile); SBR followed to record levels (indicative)

2. 2020

Covid shut tyre and car plants; butadiene fell close to naphtha value.

butadiene CFR NE Asia briefly below $500/t in April 2020 (indicative, butadiene tile)

3. 2025

New Chinese butadiene and SBR supply, weak European and US demand, closures at Port Jérôme and in Texas.

Europe butadiene contract EUR720/t (about $837/t) in December 2025, ninth monthly fall, from EUR1,050/t in March; China butadiene CNY7,021/t (about $988/t) in November, down 42% from January (GlobalData via Just Auto)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Butadiene price.** About two-thirds of cost; swings with naphtha cracker runs.
- **Tyre production.** About 70% of demand; replacement tyres are steadier than original equipment.
- **Natural rubber price.** Substitute in treads; sets a ceiling.
- **Trade remedies.** India's ESBR duties and Chinese exports to ASEAN redirect flows.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Butadiene CFR China and Europe contract** | Feed cost | S&P Global Platts, ICIS |
| **China SBR 1502 domestic price** | Asian price setter | SunSirs, Mysteel |
| **Global tyre production and car sales** | Demand | ETRMA, ATMA (India), USTMA |
| **Natural rubber TSR20 and RSS3 prices** | Substitute | SGX, Rubber Board (India) |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/links/index.md)