# Titanium dioxide: Cycles

Inside the slump that bankrupted a Western producer

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/cycles/

What this tab covers How its prices and margins move: past booms and busts with price levels, the spread or margin that the industry watches, the drivers of the cycle and the metrics to track.

TiO2 is a classic capacity cycle. Demand follows paint and plastics, which follow housing and consumer spending; supply comes in lumps as Chinese plants are built or closed for environmental reasons. Prices rose in 2016-18 when China shut polluting plants and in 2021-22 with post-pandemic demand, then fell from 2023 as Chinese capacity reached 6 Mt and exports flooded markets. The floor is the cash cost of Chinese sulphate plants; the ceiling is set by customers reformulating with extenders. Duties since 2025 split the world into protected and open markets.
 The spread to watch **Pigment price minus feedstock and acid or chlorine cost**

For sulphate plants: price - 2.5 x ilmenite - 3.75 x acid - energy (indicative). At $2,466/t landed, ilmenite at $400/t FOB Australia (2025, USGS) and acid at $200/t, raw materials alone are about $1,750/t (indicative).

#### Booms and busts

1. 2021-2022

Post-pandemic paint and plastics demand and supply disruption lifted prices and producer earnings.

US unit value $2,920/t (2021) to $3,450/t (2022) (USGS)

2. 2023-2025

Weak construction and Chinese exports caused destocking and price cuts. Tronox's Q3 2025 TiO2 prices were 5% lower and volumes 8% lower year on year; adjusted EBITDA fell 48%. Venator entered insolvency.

US unit value $3,240/t (2023), $3,170/t (2024), $3,200/t (2025) (USGS); Indian landed price about $2,466/t in the DGTR period (ChemAnalyst)

3. 2026

Capacity exits, duties and a 160% rise in sulphur prices over 18 months lifted costs for Chinese sulphate plants; Tronox raised prices 2-4% in Q1 2026.

Tronox price increases 2-4% (Q1 2026) (MarketMinute)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Housing and consumer demand.** Paints and plastics take over 80% of pigment.
- **Chinese capacity and exports.** China holds 61% of capacity, so its plant additions and environmental closures set world prices.
- **Trade remedies.** Duties in the EU, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, India and the UK shift Chinese exports to other markets.
- **Feedstock and sulphur prices.** Ilmenite and slag costs and, for sulphate plants, sulphuric acid set the cost floor.
- **Inventory cycles.** Paint makers destock and restock hard, amplifying swings (Tronox 2025).

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **US TiO2 unit value and trade** | Free price proxy | USGS MCS |
| **Chinese TiO2 domestic and export prices** | Marginal supplier | SunSirs; SMM; ChemAnalyst |
| **Quarterly volumes and prices of Tronox, Chemours, Kronos** | Demand and pricing signals | Company reports |
| **Ilmenite and rutile prices** | Feedstock cost | Iluka quarterly reviews; Fastmarkets |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/correlation/index.md)
- [Production route](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/routes/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/production/index.md)
- [Feedstocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/feedstocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/movement/index.md)
- [Regulation](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/regulation/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/titanium_dioxide/links/index.md)