# Asbestos: Cycles

A fifty-year collapse instead of booms and busts

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

Asbestos has a long structural decline, not a price cycle. US consumption peaked at 803,000 t in 1973 and fell to 50 t in 2025. World use fell from about 2 million t in 2000 to an estimated 930,000 t in 2025, a drop of nearly 55%. Tilton and Guzman use asbestos, like lead, to show how health regulation can permanently shrink demand. The last US price, an import unit value, rose from $1,880 per tonne in 2021 to $2,630 in 2022. Imports then stopped, so no later price exists.

#### US price, Average US customs unit value of imports
 2021 1,880 2022 2,630 dollars per metric ton. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.

#### Super-cycles in asbestos

Asbestos shows a long rise and a slow structural collapse, not a super-cycle. It was a cheap wonder fibre for most of the 20th century. Health evidence and liability then drove bans: US use peaked at 803,000 t in 1973 and is now near zero. World use halved between 2000 and 2025, and the remaining demand sits in Asian asbestos-cement products. Prices are not published as a series. Customs unit values show spikes when sanctions and logistics squeeze supply, as in 2022.

1. 1973-2018

Health and liability issues pushed asbestos out of US markets, product by product, as substitutes took over.

US consumption 803,000 t (1973) to 500 t or less every year since 2018 (USGS); no long price series published.

2. 2000-2025

Bans spread (EU-wide from 2005, Brazil's Supreme Court ruling of 2017, upheld 2023), and world fibre use more than halved.

World consumption about 2 Mt (2000) to 930,000 t (2025) (USGS); India's import unit value about Rs 34,400/t (2019-20) to Rs 38,400/t (2020-21) (IBM, derived).

3. 2022

Sanctions on Russia and transport disruption backed up exports; Kostanay Minerals paused mining on 1-10 May 2022 because its warehouses were full.

US import unit value rose from $1,880/t (2021) to $2,630/t (2022), up 40% (USGS).

4. 2024-2037

The US EPA banned chrysotile in March 2024; imports of fibre stopped in May 2024 and chloralkali use must end by 2029-2036, with sheet gaskets last in 2037.

US consumption 115 t (2024) to 50 t (2025), drawn from stockpiles (USGS).

#### What drives the cycle

- **National bans and court rulings.** Each ban removes a market permanently; Brazil's phase-out would take out about 15% of world supply.
- **Low-cost housing in Asia.** Asbestos-cement roofing remains the main use where price outweighs health concerns.
- **Sanctions and transport routes.** Russia and Kazakhstan supply most fibre; rail and port disruption can strand exports.
- **Cost of substitute fibres.** Cellulose and synthetic fibre-cement must get closer to asbestos-cement cost to replace it.
- **Litigation.** Liability costs deter users and investors; US deadlines may still change after 2025 legal proceedings (USGS).

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **India asbestos imports (HS 2524) by source** | India is the largest importer | DGCIS / Ministry of Commerce export-import data bank; IBM Indian Minerals Yearbook |
| **World production and consumption** | Pace of decline | USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries (annual); World Mining Data (annual) |
| **Brazil mine closure agreement (Goias)** | Starts the 5-year phase-out clock | USGS MCS commentary; Brazilian state government notices |
| **Ban adoption by country** | Demand destruction | International Ban Asbestos Secretariat country listings |
| **US EPA TSCA asbestos rule status** | Deadlines for chloralkali and gaskets | US EPA and Federal Register notices |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/asbestos/links/index.md)