# Bananas: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/correlation/ The series is the US import price of bananas, mostly from Ecuador, Guatemala and Costa Rica. Prices are set largely by annual contracts with supermarkets, and depend on freight, disease such as Panama disease, and weather. Market price **World Bank Pink Sheet: Banana, US** $/kg · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### Bananas and Tankers, barges and fuel trucks Monthly changes 0.07 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.33 weak correlation Last 5 years 0.14 monthly changes Lead or lag none No clear lead or lag Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Bananas ≈ 0.0175 × (Tankers, barges and fuel trucks)^0.72 R² 0.53 On this fit, a 10% higher tankers, barges and fuel trucks price goes with a 7.1% higher bananas price over the long run. Units: $/kg and index. Chart: Bananas and Tankers, barges and fuel trucks prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: Bananas price against Tankers, barges and fuel trucks price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Energy [Tk Tankers, barges and fuel trucks](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_tankers/)Freight cost 0.07 Bananas travel in refrigerated ships and containers, so shipping costs are a large part of the landed price. The freight proxy is a deep sea index; monthly moves correlate at 0.07 and yearly moves at 0.33, since annual contracts delay pass-through. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Oil Crude oil](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/crude_oil/)Energy cost −0.04 Fuel for ships and refrigeration is a key cost of moving bananas. The import price shows no clear link with crude oil, at minus 0.04 for monthly moves and 0.10 for yearly moves, because supermarket contracts fix prices for a year. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [Fng Fungicides](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/fungicides/)Crop protection 0.03 Black Sigatoka leaf disease forces plantations to spray fungicides dozens of times a year, a large production cost. The US index correlates with bananas at 0.03 for monthly moves and 0.27 for yearly moves. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Commodity [OJ Oranges & juice](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/)Competing fruit 0.02 Bananas and oranges compete for fruit spending, but each has its own growing regions. The data shows no link: monthly moves correlate at 0.02 and yearly moves at minus 0.05. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [LLDPE Polyethylene (LDPE, LLDPE)](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/polyethylene/)Packaging −0.12 Banana bunches are covered with plastic bags in the field and packed in plastic liners, so polyethylene is a small cost. The data shows no link: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.12. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/overview/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/stocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/links/index.md)