# Bananas: Cycles

The banana price spike and slide of the 2020s

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

The World Bank US banana price was $1.12/kg in September 2026, above $1.02 a year earlier but below $1.18 five years ago. Its ten-year range is $0.83 to $1.68, the peak also its highest since 2000. In real 2010 dollars the annual price rose from $0.87 in 2010 to $1.40 in 2023, then fell to $0.94 in 2025. Year-round harvests mean little seasonality. Hurricanes, El Niño, fertiliser and freight costs move prices. Tilton and Guzmán cite bananas as a food whose demand barely moves with the business cycle (pdf p. 114).
 Latest (2026-09) 1.12 $/kg vs 1 year ago +10% vs 5 years ago -5% vs 10 years ago +12%

#### Banana, US price

Chart: Banana, US monthly price

Chart: Banana, US annual real price
 Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.

#### Super-cycles in bananas

Bananas have no super-cycle. Supply adjusts within about a year and demand is steady, so real prices have been remarkably flat: the World Bank US import price in real 2010 dollars was $0.87/kg in 2010 and $0.94/kg in 2025. Nominal prices have risen with costs, from $0.17/kg in 1970 to $1.10/kg in 2025. The main shocks have come from trade policy (the EU banana regime from 1993 and the long WTO dispute it caused), input costs such as fuel, fertiliser and boxes, and disease. Fusarium TR4 is the biggest long-term risk because almost all export bananas are one variety.

1. 1970-1980

Oil shocks raised the costs of shipping, fertiliser and plastic, and exporting countries tried to raise export taxes.

World Bank Banana US annual average from $0.17/kg (1970) to $0.38/kg (1980)

2. 1993-2001

The EU's 1993 banana regime gave quotas and preferences to former colonies in Africa and the Caribbean, raising EU prices and starting a long WTO dispute with the US and Latin American exporters.

World Bank Banana Europe $1.00/kg (1998) vs Banana US $0.49/kg (1998); the European price fell to $0.71/kg in 2000

3. 2003-2008

Higher fuel and fertiliser costs during the commodity boom pushed contract prices up.

Banana US annual average from $0.37/kg (2003) to $0.84/kg (2008)

4. 2021-2024

Fertiliser, freight and cardboard costs soared after the pandemic and the war in Ukraine; prices then fell as costs eased and Ecuadorian supply recovered.

Banana US from $1.21/kg (2021) to an all-time monthly high of $1.68/kg (Dec 2022), then down to $0.83/kg (Dec 2024); $1.12/kg in Sep 2026

#### What drives the cycle

- **Input and freight costs.** Fertiliser, fuel, reefer freight and cardboard are large shares of export costs and pass through into contract prices.
- **Retail buying power.** Supermarkets use bananas as a low-price item and run annual tenders, squeezing supplier margins.
- **Fusarium TR4 and other disease.** TR4 has no cure and spreads in soil; it is confirmed in 21 countries and threatens the single Cavendish variety.
- **Weather and El Nino.** Floods, drought and cold spells in Ecuador, Central America and the Philippines cut export supply.
- **Trade policy.** Tariffs and preferences in the EU, Japan and China shift market shares among origins.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **World banana exports and imports by country** | Annual global trade balance | FAO Banana Market Review (annual, preliminary results in January) |
| **US and EU banana import prices** | Monthly benchmark prices | World Bank Pink Sheet |
| **Ecuador export volumes and minimum box price** | The largest exporter's supply and floor price | Ecuador Ministry of Agriculture; Ecuadorian exporters' association (AEBE) |
| **Spread of TR4** | Long-run supply risk | FAO World Banana Forum |
| **Fresh Del Monte and Dole banana segment results** | Volume, price and margin trends in the trade | Company quarterly reports |
| **India banana exports** | Growth of India's export trade | APEDA and DGCIS |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/links/index.md)