# Barley: Cycles

Tracking a price after the monthly quote stopped

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

The World Bank's monthly barley quote stopped in August 2020, but annual real prices tell the story. In 2010 dollars barley peaked at $218.0/t in 2012 and fell to about $100 in 2017 and again in 2020. It rose to $182.9 in 2023 and eased to $147.0 in 2025. Barley follows the wider grain cycle, set by maize and wheat, energy costs and weather. Booms in 2011-12 and 2022-23 matched drought and the Ukraine war. Supply responds within a season, because farmers can switch acreage between cereals.

The World Bank stopped publishing this monthly series in 2020-08. Changes below are measured from that month.
 Last (2020-08) 80.4 $/mt vs 1 year ago -40% vs 5 years ago -27% vs 10 years ago -50%

#### Barley price

Chart: Barley monthly price

Chart: Barley annual real price
 Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.

#### Super-cycles in barley

Barley rides the wider grain cycle set by maize and wheat, energy and fertiliser costs and weather. The World Bank price rose from about $20/t in the 1960s to a peak of $265.7/t in August 2012, with booms in 1973-74, 1995-96, 2007-08, 2010-12 and 2021-23. Each was followed by a fall as farmers expanded area within a season. In real terms prices have no lasting upward trend: in 2010 dollars barley averaged $218/t in 2012 and $147/t in 2025. Trade policy matters too, as China's 2020-23 duties on Australian barley showed.

1. 1972-1975

Soviet grain purchases, poor harvests and the oil shock lifted all grain prices.

World Bank barley rose from $40.6/t (Mar 1973) to $71.0/t (Oct 1974), then eased to $56.5/t (Dec 1975)

2. 1995-1997

Low world grain stocks and strong feed demand pushed prices up, then large crops reversed the move.

From $85.5/t (Jan 1995) to $138.1/t (Jun 1996); annual average fell to $85.1/t by 1998 (World Bank)

3. 2006-2009

Biofuel demand for maize, Australian drought and the commodity boom, then the financial crisis.

From $100.4/t (2006 low) to $248.1/t (Jul 2008), then $115.2/t (Dec 2008) (World Bank)

4. 2010-2016

Russian drought (2010) and US drought (2012) set the all-time high; record crops then sent prices down for four years.

From $137.4/t (2010 low) to $265.7/t (Aug 2012); annual average $97.7/t in 2017 (World Bank) (series switched from Canadian to US Minneapolis feed barley in May 2012)

5. 2020-2025

China put 80.5% duties on Australian barley in May 2020 and switched to French, Canadian and Argentine supply until the duties were lifted in August 2023; the Ukraine war lifted all grains in 2022.

World Bank annual average rose from $97.6/t (2020) to $208.7/t (2023), then $183.9/t (2024) and $170.6/t (2025); the monthly series stopped in Aug 2020 at $80.4/t

#### What drives the cycle

- **Maize and wheat prices.** Feed barley substitutes for both, so it tracks their cycle closely.
- **Weather in Australia, the Black Sea and Europe.** These regions supply most exports; Australian drought years cut exports sharply.
- **Chinese and Saudi import demand.** China imported 14.0 Mt and Saudi Arabia 4.9 Mt in 2025/26 (USDA); their pig and livestock cycles and trade policy move the market.
- **Beer and whisky demand.** Sets the malting premium over feed; maltsters cut capacity in 2025 as beer volumes fell.
- **Fertiliser and fuel costs.** Drive planting decisions and the cost floor.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **World barley balance (production, trade, stocks)** | Monthly reset of supply and demand | USDA WASDE and PSD |
| **Australian winter crop forecasts** | Largest exporter's crop size | ABARES quarterly Australian Crop Report |
| **Saudi GFSA tender results** | Largest single buyer's prices | GFSA announcements, reported by Argus and Reuters |
| **China barley imports by origin** | Shows demand and policy shifts | China General Administration of Customs (monthly) |
| **Feed and malting barley prices** | Malting premium signals brewing demand | AHDB (UK) and Grain Central (Australia) |
| **World beer production** | Drives malt demand | BarthHaas annual report |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/barley/links/index.md)