# Beef: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/correlation/ Beef prices follow the slow cattle cycle: herds take years to rebuild after drought or high feed costs. Exports from Brazil, Australia and the United States, disease bans and consumer demand set world prices. Market price **World Bank Pink Sheet: Beef** $/kg · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### Beef and Maize Monthly changes 0.12 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.29 weak correlation Last 5 years 0.11 monthly changes Lead or lag +4 mo Maize tends to lead by 4 months (r 0.17) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Beef ≈ 0.550 × (Maize)^0.39 R² 0.14 On this fit, a 10% higher maize price goes with a 3.8% higher beef price over the long run. Units: $/kg and $/mt. The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide. Chart: Beef and Maize prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: Beef price against Maize price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Commodity [Mz Maize](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/maize/)Feed cost 0.12 Cattle are finished on maize in feedlots, so dear feed squeezes margins and leads ranchers to cut herds, raising beef prices later. The link is slow: monthly moves correlate at 0.12, yearly moves at 0.29, and the best fit has maize leading by 4 months. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Commodity [Soy Soybeans](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/soybeans/)Feed cost 0.07 Soybean meal is a protein supplement for cattle, though less important than for pigs and chickens. Beef shows little link with soybeans: monthly moves correlate at 0.07 and yearly moves at 0.18. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Commodity [Pk Pork](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/)Substitute meat 0.20 Shoppers and restaurants switch between beef and pork when prices move, and both depend on the same feed grains. Monthly moves correlate at 0.20 and yearly moves at 0.46, a substitute link. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Commodity [Py Poultry](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/poultry/)Substitute meat 0.11 Chicken is the cheaper rival to beef and has taken market share for decades. The prices barely move together: monthly moves correlate at 0.11 and yearly moves at 0.28, as each follows its own production cycle. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Agr Energy in farming](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_agri_energy/)Energy cost 0.18 Diesel powers feed growing, trucking cattle and chilled transport of meat. The diesel proxy correlates with beef at 0.18 for monthly moves and 0.44 for yearly moves, a cost and general demand link. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/overview/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/stocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/beef/links/index.md)