# Coconut oil: Cycles

How real prices tripled between 2019 and 2025

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

The World Bank price was $2,083 per tonne in September 2026, down from $2,597 a year earlier but well above $1,485 five years ago. Over ten years it ranged from $636 to $2,841, the latter also the highest since 2000. In real 2010 dollars the 2025 average of $2,136 was the highest of the last fifteen years, against $739 in 2019. Booms follow weather shocks such as El Niño droughts and typhoons, which hit yields with a lag. Because palms take years to plant and mature, supply cannot respond quickly.
 Latest (2026-09) 2,083 $/mt vs 1 year ago -20% vs 5 years ago +40% vs 10 years ago +34%

#### Coconut oil price

Chart: Coconut oil monthly price

Chart: Coconut oil annual real price
 Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.

#### Super-cycles in coconut oil

Coconut oil is one of the most volatile vegetable oils, because a small number of smallholder producers in typhoon- and drought-prone countries supply a thin export market. It moves with palm kernel oil, its close substitute, and with the vegetable oil complex. The World Bank series rose from $390/t in January 1960 to a record $2,841/t in July 2025, with sharp spikes in 1974, 1984, 2008, 2011, 2022 and 2025, each followed by a collapse. Supply responds to prices only slowly because new palms take years to bear, so El Nino droughts cut output a year or more later and booms can run longer than for annual oilseeds.

1. 1973-1974

The general commodity and oil boom and a drought-cut Philippine crop.

World Bank monthly average from $200/t (April 1972) to $1,266/t (March 1974)

2. 1983-1986

The 1982-83 El Nino drought cut copra output in the Philippines and Indonesia; recovery then crashed the market.

$1,431/t (June 1984) to $211/t (August 1986)

3. 2007-2008

The biofuel-era vegetable oil boom.

$731/t (January 2007) to $1,551/t (June 2008), then $625/t (March 2009)

4. 2010-2011

El Nino in 2009-10 cut copra output, and vegetable oils were at record highs.

$784/t (January 2010) to $2,256/t (February 2011)

5. 2020-2022

The Covid recovery and the 2022 vegetable oil spike after the war in Ukraine.

$832/t (May 2020) to $2,230/t (March 2022)

6. 2024-2025

The 2023-24 El Nino and ageing palms cut Philippine output (coconut oil 1.64 Mt in 2025/26 against 1.79 Mt the year before, USDA) while demand for coconut water and fresh nuts grew.

$1,131/t (January 2024) to a record $2,841/t (July 2025); $2,083/t in September 2026

#### What drives the cycle

- **El Nino droughts and typhoons.** Cut nut set and copra output with a lag of about a year in the Philippines and Indonesia.
- **Ageing palms and slow replanting.** Many Philippine and Indian palms are old; replanting takes years to pay back.
- **Palm kernel oil supply.** The main substitute in lauric uses; it rises with palm oil output.
- **Fresh-nut and coconut water demand.** Diverts nuts away from copra and raises the floor price for oil.
- **Oleochemical demand.** Soap and surfactant makers absorb 44% of coconut oil use.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Philippine copra and coconut oil exports** | Largest exporter | Philippine Coconut Authority; Philippine Statistics Authority |
| **World coconut oil balance** | Stocks and trade | USDA PSD and Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade |
| **Coconut oil CIF Rotterdam price** | International benchmark | World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly) |
| **Kochi copra and coconut oil prices** | Indian market price | Coconut Development Board market reports; Agmarknet |
| **ENSO forecasts** | Drought risk for coming crops | NOAA Climate Prediction Center; Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
| **Palm kernel oil price** | Main lauric substitute | World Bank Pink Sheet; Bursa Malaysia (palm complex) |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/coconut/links/index.md)