# Graphite: Cycles Why graphite prices have slid since 2021 Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/cycles/ What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices. Graphite has no exchange price, but USGS import unit values show flake graphite sliding from $1,330 per ton in 2021 to about $1,000 in 2025, and amorphous from $629 to $470. Rising Chinese and African output and competition from synthetic graphite have weighed on prices. Graphite demand once tracked steel through refractories and electrodes. Smil notes that electrode graphite use per ton of electric-arc steel fell from about 7 kg in the early 1960s to 1.1 kg by 2010 (pdf p. 110). Battery demand now sets the cycle. #### US price, US import unit value, flake graphite (foreign ports) 2021 1,330 2022 1,200 2023 1,080 2024 1,050 2025 1,000 dollars per metric ton. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate. #### Super-cycles in graphite Graphite has no exchange price and no long, clean super-cycle record. Its cycles follow its customers. For most of the 20th century it tracked steel, through refractories and electrodes. The sharpest spike came in synthetic electrodes in 2017-2018, when China's crackdown on polluting blast furnaces pushed steel into electric arc furnaces. Since about 2020 battery demand has driven a boom in flake and anode capacity, then a glut: spherical graphite hit an 11-year low in 2023 and flake prices kept sliding into 2025. Policy now matters as much as demand, through Chinese export permits and US duties on Chinese anode material. 1. 2017-2018 China's crackdown on polluting blast furnaces shifted steel to electric arc furnaces, while needle coke was supplied by only three international firms; electrode makers' margins exploded. Jefferies raised its FY19 electrode realisation forecast to $14,500/t; HEG's gross profit per tonne rose from about $969 to $12,105 between Q1 FY18 and Q1 FY19 (Business Standard, Aug 2018). UHP electrodes were back at $2,950-3,600/t FOB China by May 2023 (Fastmarkets). 2. 2021-2023 EV demand triggered a build-out of Chinese anode and graphitisation capacity, and new African flake mines; capacity overshot demand. Spherical 99.95% C fell from $2,500-2,800/t at the start of 2023 to $2,000-2,300/t in May 2023, an 11-year low; flake 94% C -100 mesh FOB China $670-715/t (Fastmarkets, May 2023). 3. 2024-2026 Prices kept falling and Syrah suspended Balama from July 2024 to June 2025. China added export permits for some graphite products, the US set antidumping duties of 93.5% on Chinese anode material, and Western governments funded non-Chinese projects. Flake -100 mesh FOB China $460-489/t (Sept 2024, Fastmarkets); US import unit value for flake fell from $1,330/t (2021) to $1,000/t (2025) (USGS); Syrah realised $625/t in Q3 2025. #### What drives the cycle - **Battery cell production.** Anodes already take about 28% of graphite use and nearly all growth; GWh of cells built sets anode demand. - **Electric arc furnace steel share.** Electrode demand rises with EAF steel, including India's and China's shift to scrap-based steel. - **Chinese capacity and export policy.** China mines 82% of natural graphite and makes most anode material, so its capacity additions and export permits set world prices. - **Western trade and industrial policy.** US duties and FEOC rules, and EU and Indian incentives, create separate non-Chinese price tiers. - **Needle coke and power costs.** Synthetic graphite costs depend on coke supply from refineries and on cheap electricity for graphitisation. #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **China flake and spherical graphite prices** | Benchmark price signals for the whole chain | Fastmarkets (flake 94% C -100 mesh FOB China; spherical 99.95% C); Benchmark Natural Graphite and Anode indices | | **China natural graphite and SPG exports by destination** | Shows where anode supply chains are moving (Indonesia, Korea, Japan) | China General Administration of Customs; USGS quarterly summaries | | **Global lithium-ion cell output (GWh)** | Main demand driver | Benchmark Mineral Intelligence; China Automotive Battery Innovation Alliance | | **EAF share of steel output** | Drives electrode demand | World Steel Association monthly and annual statistics | | **Graphite electrode producer utilisation and prices** | Electrode margins and demand | HEG and Graphite India quarterly results; Fastmarkets electrode assessments | | **US antidumping and countervailing duty rulings on Chinese AAM** | Sets the price gap for non-Chinese suppliers | US Department of Commerce ITA; US ITC | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/correlation/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/stocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/graphite/links/index.md)