# Gypsum: Cycles Why calcined gypsum rose faster than raw rock Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/cycles/ What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices. Gypsum is a cheap, steady construction input. US crude gypsum rose from $10 per tonne at the mine in 2021 to $13 in 2025. Calcined gypsum rose from $42 to $62 over the same period, a larger jump for a product that needs fuel to calcine. Demand tracks housing and renovation. US housing starts in August 2025 ran 6% below a year earlier, and wallboard sales eased to 26 billion sq ft. Panel capacity was about 34 billion sq ft. The long-run risk is structural: coal-plant retirements are shrinking the synthetic supply that wallboard makers have relied on. #### US price, US crude gypsum, f.o.b. mine 2021 10.0 2022 11.0 2023 12.0 2024 12.0 2025 13.0 dollars per metric ton. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate. #### Super-cycles in gypsum Gypsum has no super-cycle. It is a cheap, local construction input whose price follows building activity and energy costs. US crude gypsum sold for $10-13/t at the mine in 2021-2025 and calcined gypsum for $42-62/t (USGS). The big structural shifts have been in supply: two decades of fast growth in FGD gypsum in the US and Europe, now reversing as coal plants close, and rapid growth of board use in Asia. Demand dips with housing busts. 1. 2020-2024 Post-Covid housing and remodelling boom plus energy inflation raised calcining and board costs. US calcined gypsum rose from $42/t (2021) to $60/t (2023-2024); crude from $10/t to $12/t (USGS MCS 2026) 2. 2022-2023 Oman's exports rose as Indian cement demand grew; India imposed anti-dumping duties on Chinese and Omani wallboard until 2028. Duties of $23.46-47.62/t on Chinese and $71.80-91.42/t on Omani wallboard (Global Gypsum, Jan 2024); Oman exports rose 11% to 11.2 Mt in 2023 3. 2025 US housing starts fell 6% year on year by August 2025 and wallboard sales slipped to 26 billion sq ft; prices still edged up. Crude $13/t, calcined $62/t (USGS MCS 2026) #### What drives the cycle - **Housing and construction activity.** Board and plaster demand track housing starts and remodelling; cement demand tracks infrastructure. - **Coal plant closures.** Cut FGD gypsum supply, raising demand for mined and imported gypsum. - **Energy prices.** Calcining and board drying use gas; energy is a large share of board cost. - **Asian adoption of drywall.** USGS expects world production to rise as wallboard spreads in Asia. #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **US housing starts** | Leading indicator of board demand | US Census Bureau (monthly) | | **US gypsum quarterly survey** | Crude, synthetic and board output | USGS Mineral Industry Surveys | | **India cement production** | Main driver of Indian gypsum demand | Office of the Economic Adviser, core sector index (monthly) | | **Oman gypsum exports** | Main supply source for India | Oman NCSI trade data; Comtrade | | **Coal plant retirements** | Signal future FGD gypsum supply | US EIA; Global Energy Monitor | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/correlation/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/stocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/gypsum/links/index.md)