# Indium: Cycles The two forces behind indium's 2024-25 price rise Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/cycles/ The two forces behind indium's 2024-25 price rise What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices. US warehouse indium prices held at about $223 to $250/kg in 2021–23. They rose to $351 in 2024 and about $370 to $390 in 2025, peaking at $408 in June 2025. Two forces drove the rise. Chinese export restrictions from February 2025 cut unwrought exports by 72% year on year. New demand came from indium phosphide in 5G and AI data-centre optics. Supply responds only as fast as zinc smelters add recovery circuits. Display demand is mature, so InP is the swing factor. #### US price, Indium 99.99%, FOB US warehouse (Argus) 2021 223 2022 250 2023 244 2024 351 2025 370 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate. #### Super-cycles in indium Indium has had one of the most violent price histories of any metal, swinging between about $100/kg and $1,000/kg over 20 years (Lipmann Walton 2020). Each boom came from a demand surge (LCD screens in 2003-05) or speculation (China's Fanya exchange in 2011-15), and each bust from supply catching up or stocks being released. Because indium is a by-product of zinc, supply cannot respond quickly, so prices overshoot both ways. The 2020s brought a milder rise driven by Chinese export restrictions and new demand from indium phosphide in data-centre optics. 1. 2002-2008 After a 1990s glut from former Soviet stocks, Europe's largest producer, Metaleurop, shut in 2002 just as flat-panel LCD output took off. Prices rose fifteen-fold, then crashed in the financial crisis. From about $60/kg (2002) to about $1,000/kg in 2005-06 (Lipmann Walton 2020), above $1,000 in 2005 (Fastmarkets); the 2008 average was $685/kg (USGS Circular 1365), then prices fell about 80% in the crisis. 2. 2011-2017 China's Fanya Metal Exchange sold indium to retail investors as a scarce asset and accumulated about 3,600 t, five to six years of supply. It collapsed in late 2015, leaving an overhang. About $800/kg in 2014 during Fanya buying; $190-230/kg at the start of 2017 and an August 2017 low of $180-200/kg (Fastmarkets); a 2019 auction of the Fanya stock opened at about $113/kg and failed (Lipmann Walton). 3. 2021-2025 China added indium to export restrictions in February 2025 and unwrought exports fell 72% year on year. Demand grew for InP lasers in 5G and AI data centres. US warehouse price $223/kg (2021) to $351 (2024) and $370 (2025 average), peaking at $408/kg in June 2025; Rotterdam $217 to $380 (USGS MCS 2026, Argus). #### What drives the cycle - **Display panel output.** ITO takes about 60% of indium; LCD and OLED panel production in China and Korea is the base load. - **Zinc smelter recovery circuits.** Supply grows only when smelters add circuits; Chinese environmental crackdowns on zinc mining cut indium output 20% in 2017. - **Chinese export policy.** China makes about 70% of refined indium and restricted exports in February 2025. - **Stock overhangs.** The Fanya stock of about 3,600 t can flood the market if a court sale succeeds. - **Indium phosphide demand.** Optical transceivers for AI data centres and 5G are the fastest-growing use (USGS 2026). #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **Rotterdam and US warehouse 99.99% indium prices** | Western benchmarks | Argus Non-Ferrous Markets; Fastmarkets | | **China domestic indium price and export volumes** | Shows the effect of export controls | Asian Metal; Shanghai Metals Market; China customs | | **Fanya stock auction news** | Sale of 3,600 t would swamp the market | Argus; Fastmarkets; Asian Metal | | **LCD/OLED panel shipments** | Demand driver for ITO | Omdia and DSCC display research | | **Optical transceiver and InP wafer shipments** | Growth driver from AI data centres | LightCounting; company reports | | **Chinese zinc smelter output** | Proxy for primary indium feed | National Bureau of Statistics of China; ILZSG | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/correlation/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/stocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/indium/links/index.md)