# Iodine: Cycles

How the price nearly doubled in two years

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

There is no exchange price. The US import unit value nearly doubled from $32.72/kg in 2021 to $61.55/kg in 2023, then reached about $68/kg in 2025. Spot iodine crystal averaged about $73/kg over the first ten months of 2025, against $70.24/kg in 2024. Supply responds slowly, because iodine is a by-product of nitrate, gas and oil operations whose output depends on other markets. Demand is steady, anchored in medical imaging and nutrition. Price swings therefore come mainly from producer capacity decisions.

#### US price, Crude iodine, average US import unit value (CIF)
 2021 32.7 2022 45.8 2023 61.5 2024 61.8 2025 68.0 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.

#### Super-cycles in iodine

Iodine is a small, concentrated market (about 39,000 t a year) dominated by Chilean caliche producers, so prices swing on their capacity decisions rather than on broad commodity cycles. A world cartel operated from 1937 (Tilton and Guzman). In the modern era, prices boomed to 2011-2012 as LCD demand surged and Fukushima disrupted Japan, collapsed by about 60% as Chilean capacity expanded, and rose again to records in 2025 on contrast-media demand and tight supply.

1. 1937 onwards

Chilean and other producers ran a world iodine cartel (Tilton and Guzman, Table 7.5).

No price series in sources.

2. 2008-2012

LCD polarising film demand soared (200 t in 2000 to 3,950 t in 2012) and the 2011 Fukushima disaster disrupted Japanese supply.

Spot peaked at $97.5/kg in June 2011; Q1 2012 average $67/kg (Roskill 2013); SQM realised $53/kg in 2012 (CRU 2018).

3. 2013-2017

SQM, ACF, Sirocco and Bullmine added about 5,000 t/yr of capacity while demand grew about 3.5% a year; prices fell about 18% a year.

SQM realised price fell from $53/kg (2012) to $20/kg (2017) (CRU 2018).

4. 2021-2025

Contrast-media demand and limited new supply tightened the market; SQM reported record prices in 2025.

US import unit value $32.72/kg (2021) to about $68/kg (2025); spot about $73/kg in Jan-Oct 2025 (USGS MCS 2026); SQM Q4 2025 above $73.5/kg (SQM).

#### What drives the cycle

- **Chilean producer capacity decisions.** Chile supplies about two-thirds of output, and SQM alone about a third, so expansions or restraint move prices.
- **Medical imaging demand.** CT scan volumes and ageing populations drive X-ray contrast media, the largest use.
- **Display technology.** LCD polarising film demand rose fast to 2012; shifts to OLED change this demand.
- **Japanese gas-brine output.** Japan's 9,000 t is capped by gas production and subsidence rules.
- **Chilean water and permitting.** Caliche operations need water and permits in the Atacama, a constraint on growth.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **SQM quarterly iodine volumes and prices** | Price leader's realised prices | SQM earnings releases (ir.sqm.com) |
| **US iodine import unit value and spot price** | Free annual price proxy | USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries |
| **Chile iodine exports** | Supply volume | Chilean customs; UN Comtrade (HS 2801.20) |
| **World CT procedure volumes and contrast-media sales** | Largest demand segment | Company results of GE HealthCare, Bayer, Bracco |
| **India and China iodine imports** | Two largest importers | DGCIS; China Customs; UN Comtrade |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/iodine/links/index.md)