# Lead: Cycles

Why lead is the sleepy one among base metals

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

Lead averaged $1,873 a tonne in September 2026, 4% below a year earlier and 17% below five years earlier. It has stayed in a narrow ten-year band of $1,626 to $2,584, far below its post-2000 high of $3,720. In real 2010 dollars the 2025 average of $1,690 was the lowest since at least 2010. Lead lacks a growth story. Scrap supply follows battery replacement, which is steady, and lithium-ion batteries are slowly displacing lead-acid in vehicles (Nassar et al.). Demand comes mainly from replacing car batteries.
 Latest (2026-09) 1,873 $/mt vs 1 year ago -4% vs 5 years ago -17% vs 10 years ago -4%

#### Lead price

Chart: Lead monthly price

Chart: Lead annual real price
 Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.

#### US price, North American refined lead (Platts)
 2021 113 2022 117 2023 114 2024 109 2025 106 cents per pound. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.

#### Super-cycles in lead

Lead has joined the broad commodity booms but has little growth story of its own. Demand rides on car and two-wheeler fleets and battery replacement, and recycling supplies most refined metal, so supply responds to scrap flows as well as mining. The big moves came in the late-1970s inflation and in the 2003-2007 China boom, when mine supply lagged and prices rose nearly ninefold. Since 2010 lead has sat in a narrow band. In real 2010 dollars the price averaged $2,148/t in 2010 and $1,690/t in 2025, the lowest in that period (World Bank). Lithium-ion is a slow, long-term threat to demand.

1. 1978-1980

The late-1970s inflation and metals boom lifted all base metals, lead included, before the early-1980s recession and high interest rates crushed demand.

World Bank price rose from about $662/t (1978 average) to a $1,382/t monthly average (June 1979); the annual average fell to $391/t by 1985.

2. 2003-2008

China's car, motorcycle and e-bike fleets drove battery demand while mine supply, tied to zinc, lagged. Prices collapsed in the 2008 financial crisis.

World Bank monthly averages: low $418/t (Oct 2002) to a $3,720/t peak (Oct 2007), then $963/t (Dec 2008).

3. 2009-2011

Chinese stimulus and restocking drove a quick rebound before the post-boom slowdown.

Back to a $2,329/t monthly average by Dec 2009; 2011 annual average $2,401/t (World Bank).

4. 2012-2026

A range-bound market: recycling expanded with the battery fleet, China slowed, and lithium-ion took some uses. Lead traded within roughly $1,600-2,600/t for a decade.

World Bank monthly averages: low $1,618/t (Nov 2015) and $1,626/t (May 2020); $1,873/t in Sep 2026.

#### What drives the cycle

- **Vehicle fleet and battery replacement.** SLI batteries are replaced every few years, so the size of car, truck and two-wheeler fleets drives steady demand.
- **Zinc and silver mine economics.** Lead is a co-product, so new zinc mines add lead whether or not lead prices are high.
- **Battery scrap availability.** Secondary lead is most of supply; collection rates and scrap exports (23 million US batteries exported in Jan-Aug 2025) move supply.
- **Environmental regulation.** Smelter closures, such as the last US primary refinery in 2013, and battery rules change who can produce.
- **Lithium-ion substitution.** Lithium is replacing lead in standby power, forklifts and some vehicles, capping long-run demand.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **ILZSG refined lead market balance** | Official surplus/deficit view | International Lead and Zinc Study Group, monthly bulletin and April/October forecasts |
| **LME and SHFE lead stocks** | Visible inventory (LME held 217,000 t end-Oct 2025) | LME daily stock reports; SHFE weekly |
| **Lead concentrate treatment charges** | Show tightness of mine supply | Fastmarkets, SMM |
| **China and India vehicle and two-wheeler sales** | Battery demand indicator | CAAM (China); SIAM (India) |
| **Spent battery exports and scrap prices** | Secondary supply flows | US Census trade data via USGS; SMM |
| **India refined lead imports and exports** | India is the top trader of refined lead | DGCIS; Ministry of Commerce export-import data bank |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lead/links/index.md)