# Lime: Cycles

The surge that nearly doubled US lime prices

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

US lime prices have jumped. Quicklime averaged $132.8 per tonne at the plant in 2021 and about $260 in 2025, nearly double. Hydrated lime rose from $158 to about $280. Most of the rise came in 2023-24. Kiln fuel is a large share of cost, so energy prices feed through. Volumes track steel output, coal-plant scrubbing and construction. US production slipped from 16.7 million t in 2022 to 15 million t. Each coal plant retired removes a flue-gas customer, while water treatment and environmental uses grow slowly.

#### US price, US quicklime, average value at plant
 2021 133 2022 150 2023 185 2024 261 2025 260 dollars per metric ton. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.

#### Super-cycles in lime

Lime has no classic super-cycle. It is a regional product whose price tracks fuel and carbon costs and steel output. Demand follows steel, which is cyclical, and environmental rules, which add demand for flue-gas and water treatment. The sharpest recent move was the energy shock of 2022-2024, when US quicklime prices nearly doubled. Structural shifts now come from lithium and battery refining, carbon pricing on process CO2, and consolidation among the large private groups.

1. 2021-2024

Gas, coal and power prices spiked after Covid and Russia's invasion of Ukraine; lime is energy and carbon intensive, so prices jumped and stayed high.

US quicklime average value rose from $132.8/t (2021) to $184.6/t (2023) and $261.4/t (2024); hydrated from $158.0/t to $274.2/t (USGS MCS 2026)

2. 2024-2025

Prices held at the higher level while US output fell from 16.6 Mt (2021) to 15 Mt as steel and sugar demand softened.

Quicklime about $260/t and hydrated about $280/t in 2025 (USGS MCS 2026)

3. 2025-2026

Consolidation and new demand: Carmeuse bought Cbb (Chile) for just under $500 million and Caleras San Juan; Martin Marietta combined with Lhoist North America; lithium became Carmeuse's second-largest market.

No new price data; Cbb deal valued at just under $500 million (Global Cement, Sep 2026)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Steel output.** Largest market; lime use follows BOF and EAF steel production.
- **Energy prices.** Kiln fuel is a large cost; the 2022 shock nearly doubled US prices.
- **Carbon costs.** About 0.79 t of process CO2 per t of quicklime cannot be avoided by fuel switching; EU carbon prices raise costs.
- **Environmental regulation.** Flue-gas and water treatment rules add demand.
- **Battery and lithium refining.** Growing new end market in Chile, Argentina, Australia and China.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **World crude steel production** | Main demand driver | World Steel Association (monthly) |
| **US lime production and prices** | Annual benchmark | USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries and Minerals Yearbook |
| **EU carbon price (EUA)** | Sets cost of process CO2 in Europe | ICE Endex / EEX daily prices |
| **Natural gas and coal prices** | Kiln fuel cost | World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly) |
| **Lime industry deals and kiln projects** | Capacity and consolidation | Global Cement lime updates |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/lime/links/index.md)