# Manganese: Cycles

A quiet price, set by one assessment for China

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

Manganese ore has no exchange price; the usual reference is CRU's assessment for 44% ore delivered to China, which averaged $5.53 per tonne unit in 2024 and about $4.50 in 2025 (USGS). By October 2025 the year-to-date spot price was 22% below the 2024 average. Over 2021-25 the annual price ranged only between $4.50 and $5.97. Demand tracks steel, so manganese rides the Chinese construction cycle. Supply shocks are mostly physical, such as the cyclone that shut a large Australian mine in 2024.

#### US price, Metallurgical ore, 44% Mn, CIF China (CRU)
 2021 5.27 2022 5.97 2023 4.80 2024 5.53 2025 4.50 dollars per metric ton unit of Mn content. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.

#### Super-cycles in manganese

Manganese has no exchange price and its cycles are those of steel, above all Chinese steel. Ore was long sold on annual contracts, where one large supplier and one large buyer settled first and the rest followed (Handbook of Primary Commodities). The China boom of the 2000s moved the trade to spot and index pricing. Since then prices have swung with Chinese steel output, port stocks and supply shocks in South Africa, Gabon and Australia. In 2021-2025 the CRU index for 44% ore delivered to China stayed between $4.50 and $5.97 per dry metric tonne unit (USGS), a narrow band compared with earlier spikes.

1. 1990s-early 2000s

Annual benchmark contracts between major miners and Japanese and European steelmakers set prices. Low steel growth kept prices subdued.

price series not available in the sources used

2. 2004-2008

China's steel output boom pulled in ore from South Africa, Gabon and Australia faster than mines could expand, and trade moved to spot pricing. The 2008 crisis ended the spike.

price series not available in the sources used

3. 2021-2022

Post-COVID steel recovery and freight costs lifted delivered prices.

CRU 44% Mn ore CIF China averaged $5.27/dmtu (2021) and $5.97 (2022) (USGS MCS 2026)

4. 2023-2024

Weak Chinese property demand pushed the average down in 2023. In 2024 a cyclone shut a large mine in northern Australia, removing high-grade supply and lifting prices.

$4.80/dmtu (2023), $5.53 (2024) (USGS MCS 2026)

5. 2025-2026

The Australian mine restarted in May 2025 while Ghana and Gabon expanded, and world steel use was flat. Gabon announced a ban on ore exports from 2029.

$4.50/dmtu (2025 average); October 2025 year-to-date spot was 22% below the 2024 average (USGS MCS 2026)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Chinese steel output.** China takes about two-thirds of seaborne ore by value (65.3% in 2024, UN Comtrade), so its steel production and property cycle set demand.
- **South African logistics and power.** South Africa ships most seaborne ore; rail and port capacity, and power for smelters, cap supply.
- **Gabon and Australia supply events.** Concentrated high-grade supply means a cyclone or a policy change (Gabon's 2029 export ban) moves prices.
- **India's steel growth.** India is the second-largest ore importer and a large ferroalloy exporter; its steel expansion adds steady demand.
- **Battery cathode chemistry.** Manganese-rich cathodes (LMFP, high-manganese NMC) could add demand for high-purity sulphate; LFP uses none.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **China crude steel output** | Main demand driver | National Bureau of Statistics of China (monthly); worldsteel |
| **Manganese ore stocks at Chinese ports** | Short-term tightness signal | Mysteel and SMM weekly reports |
| **44% and 37% ore indices delivered China** | Reference price for contracts | Fastmarkets, CRU, Argus |
| **Silicomanganese futures** | Liquid proxy for alloy margins and steel sentiment | Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange |
| **MOIL ore price notices** | India's domestic reference prices | MOIL website and stock-exchange filings |
| **India crude steel production** | Domestic demand for ore and alloys | Joint Plant Committee, Ministry of Steel (monthly) |
| **Producer quarterly shipments** | Supply changes at the largest mines | South32 and Eramet quarterly reports |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/manganese/links/index.md)