# Molybdenum: Cycles Why by-product supply gives molybdenum an unusual cycle Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/cycles/ What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices. Molybdenum has no exchange price; the US reference is Argus's molybdic oxide assessment, reported by USGS. It rose from $35.62 per kilogram in 2021 to $54.32 in 2023, then $47.72 in 2024 and about $51 in 2025. By-product supply makes the cycle unusual. When copper booms, molybdenum output rises whatever its own price; when molybdenum is dear, by-product supply cannot easily respond (Tilton & Guzmán). Primary mines are the swing supply, idling in slumps and restarting in booms. One idled Idaho mine is due to restart in 2027. #### US price, US molybdic oxide, 57% Mo (Argus) 2021 35.6 2022 41.7 2023 54.3 2024 47.7 2025 51.0 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate. #### Super-cycles in molybdenum Molybdenum is a classic boom-bust minor metal. For decades one US company, Amax, set a producer price; that ended as Chilean by-product supply grew and quotations passed to traders, and an LME contract started in 2010 (Radetzki and Warell). China's share of mine output rose from 20% in 2000 to 42% in 2013 (Humphreys). Because so much supply comes from copper mines, molybdenum supply can surge when copper is booming, independent of steel demand. A long annual price series was not in the sources used; USGS reports US molybdic oxide at $35.62/kg in 2021, $54.32/kg in 2023 and $51/kg in 2025. 1. 2000-2013 China's steel boom drove demand, and China became the largest producer, lifting output from 27 kt to 111 kt (Humphreys). China's export restrictions led to a WTO case filed in 2012 by the US, EU and Japan, which China lost; restrictions ended in January 2015 (Radetzki and Warell). Annual price data for this period were not available in the sources used 2. 2021-2023 Strong steel and energy-sector demand met flat by-product supply from ageing copper mines with falling grades. US molybdic oxide rose from $35.62/kg (2021) to $41.72/kg (2022) and $54.32/kg (2023), up 52% in two years (USGS, Argus) 3. 2024-2025 Prices eased in 2024, then recovered as China placed molybdenum powders under export control in February 2025 and US mine output rose 18%. $47.72/kg in 2024 and about $51/kg in 2025, up 7% (USGS) #### What drives the cycle - **Copper mine output and grades.** About half of supply is a copper by-product, so copper investment decides molybdenum supply. - **Chinese steel and stainless output.** China used about half of world molybdenum in Q1 2025 (38,500 t of 77,400 t, IMOA). - **Oil, gas and power capex.** Pipelines, LNG, refineries and power plants use molybdenum alloy steels and stainless. - **Fuel-quality rules.** Hydrotreating catalysts for low-sulphur fuels use molybdenum. - **Chinese export controls.** Controls on powders from 2025 and earlier export quotas affect non-Chinese supply chains. #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **Quarterly world molybdenum production and use** | Shows balance by region | International Molybdenum Association (IMOA) quarterly statistics | | **Copper miners' molybdenum guidance** | By-product supply outlook | Freeport-McMoRan, Codelco, Antofagasta, Southern Copper quarterly reports | | **Chinese molybdenum concentrate and FeMo prices** | China is half the market | Asian Metal; SMM; Fastmarkets | | **World crude and stainless steel output** | Main demand base | World Steel Association monthly; Worldstainless | | **Chinese export licences for molybdenum items** | Policy risk | China Ministry of Commerce announcements | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/correlation/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/stocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/molybdenum/links/index.md)