# Niobium: Cycles

Why niobium prices hardly ever move

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

Niobium lacks a public benchmark, and its price is unusually stable. The US ferroniobium unit value was $21 per kilogram in 2021, $25 in 2022 and 2023, and $26 in 2024 and 2025. Concentrated supply lets the main producer set prices through long-term contracts. It has generally favoured steady prices to encourage steelmakers to use more niobium. Demand follows steel output, especially for pipelines, vehicles and construction, so volumes swing more than prices.

#### US price, Ferroniobium, average unit value of US trade (gross weight)
 2021 21.0 2022 25.0 2023 25.0 2024 26.0 2025 26.0 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.

#### Super-cycles in niobium

Niobium has not had a super-cycle in the usual sense. Prices are set in long-term negotiations by a near-monopoly supplier, so they move slowly. Tilton and Guzman list niobium as one of the most concentrated mineral markets, with CBMM at 80% and the top four firms at 99% in 2012. Demand has grown with steel output, especially Chinese pipeline and construction steel, and CBMM has kept capacity ahead of demand. The main risks are concentration in one Brazilian site and trade policy, not geology.

1. 1959-2010s

US niobium mining ended after 1959 and Brazil's Araxa deposit, developed by CBMM, became the world's supplier, building demand for niobium microalloyed steel (USGS; Tilton and Guzman).

Long-run price data were not available in the sources used

2. 2021-2022

Steel demand recovered after the pandemic and ferroniobium prices rose.

US ferroniobium average unit value rose from $21/kg (2021) to $25/kg (2022), about 19% (USGS)

3. 2023-2025

Prices held flat while Brazilian exports stayed high and China took about half of them.

$25/kg (2023) and $26/kg (2024 and 2025); Brazil exported 92,000 t FeNb in 2024 (USGS)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Chinese steel output and quality upgrading.** China took 49% of Brazilian ferroniobium exports in 2024 and 38% of world imports (USGS; UN Comtrade).
- **Pipeline and automotive lightweighting.** Microalloyed steels let thinner sections carry the same loads.
- **Producer pricing by CBMM.** Long-term contracts and spare capacity damp price swings.
- **Aerospace build rates.** Superalloy demand drives high-purity niobium.
- **Battery and superconductor growth.** CPM projects non-steel demand growth of about 11% a year to 2035.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Brazil ferroniobium exports (HS 7202.93)** | Direct measure of world supply | Brazil Comex Stat; UN Comtrade |
| **World and Chinese crude steel output** | Main demand driver | World Steel Association monthly |
| **Chinese FeNb 65% price** | Spot signal in the largest market | Asian Metal (FeNb 60-A EXW China) |
| **US ferroniobium unit value** | Long-running Western price indicator | USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries |
| **Aircraft engine deliveries** | Superalloy demand | Airbus and Boeing monthly delivery data |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/niobium/links/index.md)