# Nitrogen (ammonia): Cycles How Europe's gas crisis sent urea soaring in 2022 Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/cycles/ How Europe's gas crisis sent urea soaring in 2022 What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices. Urea averaged $407.5/t in September 2026, against $461.1 a year earlier and $418.8 five years earlier. The ten-year range is $142.6 to $925. In 2010 dollars urea rose two and a half times, from $234 in 2020 to $596 in 2022, when European gas prices soared, then fell to $293.9 in 2024. Gas is the dominant cost, so nitrogen tracks gas more than any other fertiliser. US Gulf ammonia averaged $1,070 per short ton in 2022 and $450 in 2025 (USGS). Seasonal demand peaks before spring planting in the northern hemisphere. Latest (2026-09) 408 $/mt vs 1 year ago -12% vs 5 years ago -3% vs 10 years ago +118% #### Urea price Chart: Urea monthly price Chart: Urea annual real price Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release. #### US price, US ammonia, f.o.b. Gulf Coast (Green Markets) 2021 578 2022 1,070 2023 470 2024 440 2025 450 dollars per short ton. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate. #### Super-cycles in nitrogen (ammonia) Nitrogen prices move in sharp spikes rather than long super-cycles. Ammonia can be made anywhere with gas or coal, and plants are built in three to four years, so high prices invite new capacity and then collapse. Spikes come when the cost floor jumps (gas shocks in 2008 and 2021-22) or when export supply is cut (China's curbs from 2021, the Hormuz disruption of 2026). The World Bank monthly urea price has topped $780/t three times since 2008 (2008, 2022, 2026), and each spike reversed within one to two years. In real terms urea in 2025 ($364/t in 2010 dollars, World Bank annual real series) sat close to its 2012 level ($362/t). 1. 1973-1976 Oil shock, grain boom and a capacity shortfall. Fertiliser was scarce worldwide and governments scrambled for cargoes. New plants and falling grain prices then broke the market. World Bank urea (monthly average) rose from $16/t (Jan 1971) to $285.8/t (Jan 1974), then averaged $82/t in 1976 2. 2006-2009 Biofuel-driven grain boom, high oil and gas prices, and Chinese export taxes. The 2008 financial crisis then cut demand overnight. World Bank urea (monthly average) rose from $202/t (Jan 2006) to $785/t (Aug 2008), then fell to $240/t (Dec 2008) 3. 2021-2023 European gas rose about tenfold, forcing plant closures; China restricted urea exports from late 2021; Russia's invasion of Ukraine added sanctions risk. World Bank urea (monthly average) rose from $265/t (Jan 2021) to a record $925/t (Apr 2022); European gas reached a $70/MMBtu monthly average (Aug 2022) 4. 2026 Conflict involving Iran from late February 2026 disrupted shipping through Hormuz, which carries about 40% of seaborne urea. Russian and Egyptian cargoes to India rose. Prices eased once the strait reopened. World Bank urea (monthly average) rose from $415/t (Jan 2026) to $857/t (Apr 2026), then fell back to $407.5/t (Sep 2026) #### What drives the cycle - **Natural gas prices (TTF, Henry Hub, LNG).** Gas is 72-85% of ammonia cost, so the highest-cost producers, usually in Europe, set the floor price when gas jumps. - **Chinese export policy.** China makes about 30% of world ammonia from coal. Its export quotas decide whether 5 Mt of urea a year reaches world markets or stays home. - **Gulf export routes.** About 40% of seaborne urea passes Hormuz. Any disruption removes supply that cannot be replaced quickly. - **India's tender demand.** India imported 10.38 Mt of urea in FY2026. The size and timing of its tenders swing world prices. - **Grain prices and planted area.** High corn and wheat prices make farmers apply more N; US corn area (38.5 Mha in 2025) is the single biggest demand signal. - **Capacity cycle.** New gas-based plants in the US, Gulf and Russia add supply in large blocks a few years after price peaks. #### Metrics to track | Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it | |---|---|---| | **TTF and Henry Hub gas prices** | Sets the marginal cost of ammonia in Europe and the US | ICE Endex; US EIA; World Bank Pink Sheet | | **Granular urea FOB Middle East, Egypt, NOLA and CFR Brazil** | Main spot benchmarks for traded urea | Argus, CRU, ICIS, Profercy assessments; World Bank Pink Sheet monthly | | **Tampa ammonia monthly contract** | Benchmark for traded ammonia west of Suez | Argus and CRU reports | | **India urea tender volumes and prices** | Largest single swing buyer | NFL, IPL and RCF tender notices; Fertilizer Daily; Argus | | **China urea export volumes and quota signals** | Decides whether Chinese surplus reaches the market | China General Administration of Customs monthly data | | **Urea vessels waiting in the Middle East Gulf** | Early warning of shipping disruption | Kpler vessel tracking | | **US planted corn area** | Biggest driver of US spring N demand | USDA NASS Prospective Plantings (March) and Acreage (June) | ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/overview/index.md) - [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/correlation/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/stocks/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nitrogen/links/index.md)