# Oats: Cycles

Why a thin market swings harder than big grains

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

Oats have no World Bank benchmark price; the CBOT futures price is the usual reference. Like other feed grains, oat prices rise with maize and wheat and with drought in Canada and northern Europe. Because the market is thin, price swings can be sharper than for the big grains. Growing demand for oat drinks and health foods has supported milling premiums. Supply responds within a season, as farmers can switch acreage to barley, wheat or canola. Harvest pressure usually weighs on prices in late summer.

No public benchmark price series for this commodity in the datasets used. Many minor materials trade on private contracts.

#### Super-cycles in oats

Oats are a small, thin market that follows the wider feed-grain cycles but with sharper swings, because trade depends on one exporter, Canada. Over the long run oats lost area to wheat, maize, canola and soybeans: world output fell from 39.9 Mt in 1990 to 19.2 Mt in 2010, then recovered to 26.0 Mt in 2020 and 26.2 Mt in 2025/26 (FAOSTAT; USDA). The World Bank does not publish an oats price series, and a long CBOT oats price history was not available in the sources used, so the episodes below rely on supply data and USDA farm prices.

1. 1990-2010

A long contraction: horses left farms, the former Soviet Union's output collapsed and farmers in Canada and the US switched to canola, maize and soybeans.

2. 2021-2022

Drought on the Canadian prairies cut the oat crop to 2.90 Mt in 2021/22 from 4.58 Mt the year before (USDA PSD), and Canadian exports fell to 1.33 Mt from 2.02 Mt. Oat prices rose sharply.

Price level not found in sources used

3. 2022-2023

A 5.23 Mt Canadian crop in 2022/23 refilled supply, then another dry year cut it to 2.64 Mt in 2023/24 (USDA PSD).

Price level not found in sources used

4. 2024-2026

Larger EU and Canadian crops and weak feed demand kept the market supplied; world output reached 26.2 Mt in 2025/26.

US average farm price $3.35/bu (2024/25), $3.23/bu (2025/26), projected $3.35/bu (2026/27) (USDA WASDE, October 2026)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Canadian prairie weather.** Canada supplies most export trade; a drought there tightens the whole market.
- **Relative profitability against canola, wheat and barley.** Farmers choose oats only when they pay; area swings with prices of competing crops.
- **Health-food and oat-drink demand.** Steady growth in food use supports milling premiums.
- **Feed-grain prices.** Most oats are fed, so maize and barley prices set the floor.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Statistics Canada seeded area and production estimates** | Main supply signal | Statistics Canada (Principal field crop areas and production reports) |
| **US oats supply and use, world balance** | US is the main importer | USDA WASDE and PSD, monthly |
| **CBOT oats futures** | Only liquid oats price | CME Group |
| **Canadian Grain Commission exports and stocks** | Weekly export pace | Canadian Grain Commission |
| **Prairie drought conditions** | Yield risk | Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, Canadian Drought Monitor |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/oats/links/index.md)