# Oranges & juice: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/correlation/ The series is the European import price of fresh navel oranges from Mediterranean exporters. Juice is a separate market, set by Brazilian and Florida harvests hit by citrus greening. Weather, disease and fruit demand move both. Market price **World Bank Pink Sheet: Orange** $/kg · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### Oranges & juice and Flavours and fragrances Monthly changes -0.06 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.02 little or none correlation Last 5 years 0.00 monthly changes Lead or lag −6 mo Oranges & juice tends to lead by 6 months (r 0.12) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Oranges & juice ≈ 0.610 × (Flavours and fragrances)^0.07 R² 0.01 On this fit, a 10% higher flavours and fragrances price goes with a 0.7% higher oranges & juice price over the long run. Units: $/kg and index (BLS base period =100). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide. Chart: Oranges & juice and Flavours and fragrances prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: Oranges & juice price against Flavours and fragrances price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Chemical [F&F Flavours and fragrances](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/flavours_fragrances/)By-product −0.06 Juice making leaves orange peel, which yields orange oil and limonene, valued ingredients in flavours, fragrances and cleaners. The US flavours index shows no tie with the orange price: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.06 and yearly moves at 0.02. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Commodity [Bn Bananas](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/bananas/)Competing fruit 0.02 Bananas and oranges compete for fruit spending, but each has its own growing regions and diseases. The data shows no link: monthly moves correlate at 0.02 and yearly moves at minus 0.05. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Commodity [Su Sugar](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/sugar/)Shared supply region 0.09 Brazil leads both sugar and orange juice output, so its weather and currency touch both. The series here is a European fresh orange price, so the link is weak: monthly moves correlate at 0.09 and yearly moves at 0.27. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Agr Energy in farming](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_agri_energy/)Energy cost 0.09 Packing, cold storage and refrigerated shipping of fresh oranges and juice use a lot of energy. The diesel proxy correlates with orange prices at only 0.09 for both monthly and yearly moves, as harvests and fruit demand dominate. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [Ins Insecticides](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/insecticides/)Crop protection 0.07 Citrus greening spreads through a tiny insect, the psyllid, so growers spray insecticides heavily to slow it. Monthly moves correlate at 0.07 and the last five years at 0.17; the cost matters to growers but does not drive orange prices. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/overview/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/stocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/links/index.md)