# Oranges & juice: Criticality

Why one Brazilian state controls juice prices

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/criticality/

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

#### Exposure by region

| Region | Exposure | Share of world output | Share of world imports | Share of world exports | Net trade (US$) | Self-sufficiency | On own critical list | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **US** | High | 3.7% | 15.9% | 8.8% | −$539.7 m | 16% | No | Largest juice importer with 30.6% of world import value in 2024 (UN Comtrade); its own orange output fell from 11.79 Mt (2000) to 2.50 Mt (2024) (FAOSTAT). |
| **EU** | High | 8.9% | 48.3% | 42.3% | −$411.8 m | 19% | No | Spain is the top fresh exporter (23.0% of value), while Germany, France and the Netherlands are the largest fresh importers and the EU imports about 360 kt of juice a year (UN Comtrade 2024; USDA PSD 2025/26). |
| **India** | Low | 5.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | −$45.9 m | – | No | Fifth-largest grower with 3.85 Mt (5.7% of world, 2024) that eats almost all of it fresh; a small importer of 138 kt of fresh oranges in 2024 (FAOSTAT; UN Comtrade). |
| **China** | High | 11.3% | 2.5% | 2.2% | −$20.3 m | 37% | No | Second-largest grower (11.3% of world output, 2024) and a growing importer of juice, 64 kt in 2025/26 (FAOSTAT; USDA PSD). |
| **Japan** | High | 0.0% | 1.6% | 0.0% | −$125.7 m | 0% | No | Small grower that imports both fresh oranges (2.5% of world import value, 2024) and about 58 kt of juice a year (UN Comtrade; USDA PSD 2025/26). |
| **Latin America** | Low | 37.2% | 0.8% | 18.0% | +$1.37 bn | 1737% | no list | Brazil grows 23.3% of the world's oranges and supplies 39.3% of juice export value; Mexico (7.2% of output) also exports juice to the US (FAOSTAT 2024; UN Comtrade 2024). |
| **Middle East** | High | 4.7% | 5.6% | 0.3% | −$410.3 m | 60% | no list | Egypt is the second-largest fresh exporter (17.2% of value), while Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE are large fresh importers (UN Comtrade 2024). |
| **Australia** | Medium | 0.8% | 0.0% | 2.8% | +$226.3 m | 77% | No | Small exporter of fresh oranges (4.3% of world export value, 2024) with about 17 kt of juice output (UN Comtrade; USDA PSD 2025/26). |

 Exposure rating: **High** when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); **Medium** for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; **Low** for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Self-sufficiency: USDA PSD 2025/26. Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

Oranges are on neither the US 2025 nor the India 2023 critical list, and they are not a staple calorie source. The risk lies in juice concentration. Brazil, mainly São Paulo state, is by far the largest juice exporter, so a drought, freeze or disease outbreak there moves global prices. Citrus greening has no cure and has already shrunk Florida's industry. Climate change adds heat and water stress around the Mediterranean and in Brazil. Consumers substitute easily, switching to other juices or drinking less when prices rise.
 EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 898 unconcentrated

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/stocks/index.md)
- [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/cycles/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/movement/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/orange/links/index.md)