# Palladium: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/correlation/ Palladium comes mostly from Russia's Norilsk and South Africa, often as a co-product of nickel and platinum. Petrol car catalytic converters dominate demand, so car output, emission rules and the switch to battery cars set the price. No public price Palladium has no public monthly price series: No free long monthly price series available to this site. #### What its price moves with Commodity [Pt Platinum](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/platinum/)Substitute Palladium and platinum can replace each other in catalytic converters, so a wide price gap leads carmakers to switch. Palladium's record prices early this decade and platinum's relative cheapness pushed substitution back toward platinum. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Commodity [Rh Rhodium](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rhodium/)Co-product Rhodium is mined alongside palladium and platinum in South Africa and Russia, so all three share supply shocks such as power cuts and sanctions, and all go into the same catalytic converters. No public price for rhodium, so the link is explained in words only. Commodity [Ni Nickel](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/nickel/)Co-product source Norilsk Nickel produces much of the world's palladium as a co-product of its nickel and copper mines, so nickel mining decisions and Russian sanctions risk affect palladium supply, even when palladium demand is falling. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Chemical [PGM Autocatalysts](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/autocatalysts/)Main use Three-way catalytic converters in petrol cars take the large majority of palladium, so emission standards in China, Europe and the US directly drive demand. Tighter rules raise the metal loading per car. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Energy [ICV Combustion road vehicles](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_road_ice/)Car demand Every petrol car or hybrid built needs a palladium catalyst, so light-vehicle production is the main demand driver. Weak car sales in a downturn hit palladium quickly, because carmakers hold little stock. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. Energy [EV Electric and hybrid vehicles](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_evs/)Demand threat Battery electric cars have no exhaust and need no palladium, so their spread is the biggest long-term threat to demand. Hybrids, which still have catalysts, soften the decline and keep some demand alive. Not enough overlapping price history to measure. How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/overview/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/stocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/palladium/links/index.md)