# Pork: Cycles

The textbook boom and bust that pig farmers keep repeating

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

The hog cycle is much shorter than the cattle cycle (Geman, pdf p. 172), but it is a textbook boom and bust. High prices encourage farmers to keep sows, output rises about a year later, and prices fall. Feed costs move the cycle too. Morgan shows dear corn in 1973-74 sending a record 81 million US hogs to market, then retail bacon hitting a record by 1975 (pdf p. 231).

No public benchmark price series for this commodity in the datasets used. Many minor materials trade on private contracts.

#### Super-cycles in pork

Pork has no super-cycle of its own. It has a short, sharp hog cycle: high prices lead farmers to keep more sows, output rises about a year later and prices fall. Feed costs and disease shocks override the cycle. The biggest shock in modern times was African swine fever in China from 2018, which cut world pig meat output by about 9% in a year. Output then recovered to a record 125.4 Mt in 2024, and the industry moved into oversupply, with Chinese hog prices falling and margins collapsing in 2025. There is no World Bank pork price series, so long-run price evidence is patchy.

1. 1973-1975

Dear maize led US Corn Belt farmers to sell grain rather than feed it, so a record 81 million hogs, including many sows, went to market. Supply later collapsed because fewer sows produced fewer litters (Morgan).

retail bacon reached a record $2.16 a lb by end-1975, 50-75 cents above the 1971 level (Morgan)

2. 1976

Speculation in CME frozen pork belly futures moved prices sharply with no change in supply (Morgan).

pork bellies moved from 60 to 72 and back to 57 cents a lb within weeks (summer 1976)

3. 2018-2020

African swine fever spread through China and Vietnam and destroyed a large share of the herds.

no price series in the sources used; China output fell from 55.0 Mt (2018) to 42.1 Mt (2020) and world output from 119.6 Mt to 108.7 Mt (FAOSTAT)

4. 2021-2025

Corporate farms in China rebuilt herds fast and output passed pre-ASF levels; national hog sales hit a record 720 million head in 2025, driving prices and margins down.

China average live hog price 14.44 yuan/kg in 2025, down 9.2%; Muyuan profit fell from 214 to 31 yuan per head (Muyuan 2025 results)

5. 2025-2026 (US)

Record US output with exports near a quarter of production met softer prices.

national base barrows and gilts $68.80/cwt in 2025, forecast $55.00/cwt for Q4 2026 (WASDE, Oct 2026)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Hog cycle and sow herd.** Sow numbers set supply about ten months to a year ahead; herd building at high prices sows the next glut (Geman; Morgan).
- **Feed costs.** Maize and soybean meal are most of the cost. World Bank maize averaged $318.8/t in 2022 against $165.5/t in 2020, squeezing producers.
- **Animal disease.** African swine fever cut world output by about 9% between 2018 and 2019 and changes trade flows for years (FAOSTAT).
- **Chinese policy and imports.** China produces 45.5% of world pork, so small swings in its output and import needs, its state reserve purchases and sow-herd targets move world prices.
- **Trade policy.** Tariffs and plant approvals in China, Mexico and Japan decide where US, EU and Brazilian pork goes; US exports were 25% of US output in 2025 (WASDE).

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **US Quarterly Hogs and Pigs (breeding herd, farrowing intentions)** | Best guide to US supply 6-12 months ahead | USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service |
| **China breeding sow inventory** | Leading indicator of Chinese output and import demand | China Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, monthly |
| **Muyuan monthly hog sales and average price** | Largest producer's volumes and realised prices | Muyuan monthly sales announcements (Shenzhen and Hong Kong exchanges) |
| **US pork production, trade, cold storage and hog price forecast** | Monthly balance sheet | USDA WASDE livestock tables; USDA NASS Cold Storage report |
| **CME Lean Hog futures and the CME Lean Hog Index** | Market expectation of US hog prices | CME Group |
| **Dalian live hog futures** | Market expectation of Chinese hog prices | Dalian Commodity Exchange |
| **World pork production and trade by country** | Twice-yearly global forecast | USDA FAS Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/pork/links/index.md)