# Rapeseed: Cycles

What Canada's 2021 drought did to oil prices

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/cycles/

What Canada's 2021 drought did to oil prices What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

The World Bank benchmark is for rapeseed oil, not seed. It averaged $1,440/t in September 2026, against $1,268 a year earlier and $1,629 five years earlier, during the 2021 Canadian drought. The ten-year range is $759 to $2,266. Rapeseed oil follows crude oil through biodiesel demand, and follows palm and soybean oil because they substitute. Weather in Canada, Europe and Australia sets supply. Farmers can expand acreage within a season, so high prices bring quick supply responses.
 Latest (2026-09) 1,440 $/mt vs 1 year ago +14% vs 5 years ago -12% vs 10 years ago +69%

#### Rapeseed oil price

Chart: Rapeseed oil monthly price
 Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.

#### Super-cycles in rapeseed

Rapeseed oil moves with the vegetable oil complex and, since the mid-2000s, with diesel because of EU biodiesel demand. The World Bank series (starting 2002) rose from $411/t in April 2002 to $1,592/t in June 2008, slid to $748/t by April 2015, then hit a record $2,266/t in April 2022. It was $1,440/t in September 2026. Booms come when weather cuts Canadian or EU crops at the same time as high energy prices; they end within one or two seasons because the crop is annual and area responds quickly. The long-run trend is a rising floor, as biofuel mandates absorb nearly 30% of oil supply.

1. 2006-2008

EU biodiesel mandates, crude oil above $100/bbl and low oilseed stocks drove the first biofuel-era boom; the financial crisis ended it.

World Bank monthly average from $411/t (April 2002) to $1,592/t (June 2008); 2009 average $872/t

2. 2010-2011

Poor crops and strong Chinese buying lifted all vegetable oils again; record Canadian crops from 2013 then pushed prices down.

$1,447/t (April 2011), down to $748/t (April 2015)

3. 2020-2022

Drought cut Canada's crop to 14.2 Mt in 2021/22 from 19.5 Mt (USDA PSD); then the war in Ukraine cut sunflower oil exports and Indonesia briefly banned palm exports.

$759/t (April 2020) to a record $2,266/t (April 2022); 2023 average $1,065/t

4. 2024-2026

US renewable diesel demand for Canadian canola oil, a smaller Ukrainian sunflower crop and firm palm prices lifted prices again.

$963/t (February 2024) to $1,522/t (June 2026); $1,440/t in September 2026

#### What drives the cycle

- **Biofuel policy in the EU, US and Canada.** Industrial use is 28.5% of rapeseed oil demand (2025/26); mandate and credit changes move demand by millions of tonnes.
- **Canadian and EU weather.** Canada and the EU grow 45% of world output; drought on the prairies or a bad European winter tightens supply quickly.
- **Price spreads to soy, sunflower and palm oil.** Buyers switch oils on price, so all four move together.
- **China trade policy.** China is the largest seed importer by value; duties on Canadian canola reroute trade.
- **Crude oil and diesel prices.** Set the value of rapeseed oil as fuel feedstock.
- **India's import duties and MSP.** Shape Indian crush margins and how much mustard oil competes with imported oils.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Statistics Canada canola area and production** | Largest exporter's supply | Statistics Canada |
| **World and country rapeseed balances** | Stocks-to-use and trade | USDA WASDE and PSD; USDA FAS Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, monthly |
| **ICE canola and Euronext rapeseed futures** | Daily price benchmarks | ICE Futures US; Euronext |
| **Canadian crush and exports** | Weekly demand pace | Canadian Oilseed Processors Association (COPA); Canadian Grain Commission |
| **India mustard arrivals and crush** | Indian supply and crush margins | Mustard Oil Producers Association of India (MOPA); Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) |
| **India edible oil imports by type** | Shows switching between mustard and imported oils | SEA monthly import data |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rapeseed/links/index.md)