# Rare earths: Cycles

The 2010 quota shock and the crash that followed

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

Rare-earth prices are set by policy as much as by mining. China cut export quotas by 40% in 2010 and prices spiked. They collapsed after 2011 as buyers ran down hoarded stocks and substituted (Humphreys, pdf pp. 92, 214). A smaller version followed recently. NdPr oxide averaged $124/kg in 2022, fell to $55 in 2024 and recovered to $69 in 2025. Terbium oxide fell from $2,050/kg to $812 over 2022–24. Low prices hurt non-Chinese projects, which need years to permit and build. That makes supply outside China slow to respond.

#### US price, NdPr oxide, 99% min, FOB (Argus)
 2021 92.0 2022 124 2023 75.0 2024 55.0 2025 69.0 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.

#### Super-cycles in rare earths

Rare earths do not follow the broad metals super-cycle. Their prices are set mostly by Chinese policy and by bursts of demand from new technologies, so they move in sharp spikes and long slumps. Chinese exports undercut Western mines from the mid-1980s. Quota cuts in 2010 produced a spike of up to 30 times in some oxides, then a collapse as buyers used stocks and thrifted. An EV-driven boom in 2021-22 faded to a glut by 2024. Since 2025 export controls have split the market into a Chinese price and a higher non-Chinese price, now underpinned by Western government floors.

1. 1985-2002

China began exporting in the mid-1980s and its growing output pushed prices down. Mountain Pass, the main Western mine, closed in 2002 after wastewater leaks and low prices; Australian production also shut. Consumers enjoyed cheap supply and Western know-how faded. Humphreys (2015) describes steadily falling prices to 2002; no price series for these years was found to give levels.

2. 2010-2012

China cut export quotas by 40% in 2010 as demand recovered from the financial crisis, and Japanese buyers found deliveries had stopped during a territorial dispute, which China denied was retaliation. Prices exploded, then collapsed as buyers drew on stocks, thrifted and substituted. A WTO case went against China in 2014.

Lanthanum oxide export price rose from about $5,500/t (early 2010) to $9,765/t (July 2010) and a peak of $153,560/t (July 2011) (Humphreys 2015).

3. 2021-2024

Electric-vehicle and wind demand for NdFeB magnets drove a boom in NdPr prices, followed by a slide as China raised quotas (2023 mining quota up 21.4%) and Myanmar clay supply grew.

NdPr oxide averaged $92/kg (2021), $124/kg (2022) and $55/kg (2024); terbium oxide fell from $2,050/kg (2022) to $812/kg (2024) (USGS MCS 2026, Argus).

4. 2025-2026

China imposed licences on seven medium and heavy rare earths and magnets in April 2025 and added five more in October, then suspended the October measures for a year. The US guaranteed MP Materials a price floor. Non-Chinese prices rose relative to Chinese ones.

NdPr oxide averaged $69/kg in 2025 (Argus via USGS MCS 2026); the US NdPr floor is $110/kg from October 2025; Lynas's average selling price across all products rose from A$38.1/kg (FY2024) to A$50.6/kg (FY2025) (Lynas FY2025 annual report).

#### What drives the cycle

- **Chinese quotas and export policy.** China sets annual mining and separation quotas (270,000 t mining in 2024) and export licences. Changes in these, not geology, have caused every big price move since 2010.
- **Electric vehicles and wind turbines.** Permanent-magnet motors and direct-drive generators set the marginal demand for NdPr, dysprosium and terbium; magnets were forecast to rise from 29% to about 40% of tonnage by 2030 (Roskill 2021).
- **Myanmar clay supply.** Myanmar supplies much of China's heavy rare-earth feed (22,000 t REO in 2025). Border closures and fighting in Kachin state swing heavy rare-earth prices.
- **Western industrial policy.** Price floors, stockpiles, loans and magnet subsidies in the US, Japan, EU, Australia and India create a separate non-Chinese market and support projects that Chinese prices alone would not.
- **Balance problem between elements.** Mining for NdPr brings surplus cerium and lanthanum, which depresses their prices and raises the cost burden on the magnet elements.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **China mining and separation quotas** | Sets the bulk of world supply for the year | Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announcements; reported by SMM, Asian Metal and Reuters |
| **NdPr oxide price, China domestic and FOB/CIF outside China** | Main value driver; the gap between the two shows how binding export controls are | SMM, Asian Metal, Argus, Fastmarkets, Benchmark Mineral Intelligence |
| **China rare-earth and magnet exports by month** | Shows the effect of licensing on foreign buyers | China General Administration of Customs monthly data, reported by Reuters |
| **China imports of rare-earth compounds from Myanmar and Laos** | Leading indicator for heavy rare-earth supply | China customs data; USGS uses Trade Data Monitor |
| **Global EV and wind installations** | Drives magnet demand | IEA Global EV Outlook; Global Wind Energy Council |
| **Lynas and MP quarterly output and realised prices** | Best public read on non-Chinese supply and pricing | Lynas ASX quarterly reports; MP Materials quarterly results |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rare_earths/links/index.md)