# Rice: Cycles

Lessons from the 2007-08 scramble for rice

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

Thai 5% broken rice was $482/t in September 2026, up 29% on a year earlier ($374) and 21% above five years ago ($400). The ten-year range is $356 to $660; the post-2000 high of $907 came earlier. Rice's sharpest modern spike was the 2007-08 food crisis, when Asian governments scrambled for supplies (Blas & Farchy, pdf p. 232). In real 2010 dollars the annual average fell from $511.2 in 2024 to $351.3 in 2025, the lowest since at least 2010. Monsoon strength, El Niño, and export policy in India, Thailand and Vietnam drive the swings.
 Latest (2026-09) 482 $/mt vs 1 year ago +29% vs 5 years ago +21% vs 10 years ago +26%

#### Rice, Thai 5% price

Chart: Rice, Thai 5% monthly price

Chart: Rice, Thai 5% annual real price
 Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.

#### Super-cycles in rice

Rice prices are set in a thin world market: only about 11% of output is traded, so a policy change in one big exporter can double the price. Long-run real prices have fallen since the Green Revolution, but rice spikes harder than wheat or maize because governments hoard. The World Bank Thai 5% monthly average hit $604/t in 1974 and an all-time high of $907/t in April 2008, both driven by export bans and panic buying. In 2010 dollars the annual average fell from $511 in 2024 to $351 in 2025, the lowest since 2007, after India lifted its curbs.

1. 1972-1974

Poor Asian harvests, the oil shock and export restrictions during the world food crisis.

World Bank Thai 5% (monthly average) rose from $96/t (Apr 1971) to $604/t (Apr 1974)

2. 2007-2008

India, Vietnam and other exporters restricted sales while the Philippines bought heavily. World stocks were not short, but the traded market froze.

World Bank Thai 5% (monthly average) jumped from $313/t (Jan 2007) to $907/t (Apr 2008), then fell to $532/t by Dec 2008

3. 2022-2024

India banned broken rice exports and taxed white rice (Sep 2022), banned non-basmati white rice (Jul 2023) and taxed parboiled rice (Aug 2023). El Niño added to fears.

World Bank Thai 5% (monthly average) rose from $439/t (Sep 2022) to $660/t (Jan 2024)

4. 2024-2026

India lifted most curbs in September-October 2024 and allowed broken rice exports in March 2025 as stocks swelled. USDA forecasts India's 2026/27 crop at 147 Mt, down from 154 Mt.

World Bank Thai 5% (monthly average) fell to $356/t (Oct 2025), then recovered to $482/t (Sep 2026)

#### What drives the cycle

- **Indian export policy.** India supplies about a third of world exports; its bans, duties and minimum export prices moved world prices more than weather in 2022-25.
- **Monsoon and El Niño.** A weak monsoon cuts India's and Southeast Asia's kharif crop and raises political pressure to restrict exports.
- **Importer stockpiling.** Indonesia, the Philippines and Malaysia buy heavily when prices rise, adding to spikes.
- **Public stock levels in India and China.** Huge state stocks let governments sell into the market or keep it closed.
- **Fertiliser and energy costs.** Urea and diesel for pumps are major costs; India's subsidies insulate farmers, others pass costs into prices.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Thai 5% and Vietnam 5% FOB export prices** | Main world benchmarks | Thai Rice Exporters Association (weekly); World Bank Pink Sheet (monthly) |
| **India's export policy notifications** | Biggest single price driver | DGFT notifications; Ministry of Commerce |
| **FCI central pool rice stocks versus buffer norms** | Room for India to export or sell domestically | FCI monthly stock position |
| **Indian monsoon rainfall and kharif sowing** | Early signal of India's crop | India Meteorological Department; Ministry of Agriculture weekly sowing data |
| **ENSO outlook** | El Niño cuts Asian rice output | NOAA Climate Prediction Center; Australian Bureau of Meteorology |
| **World stocks and trade forecasts** | Overall balance | USDA WASDE (monthly); AMIS Market Monitor |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rice/links/index.md)