# Natural rubber: Correlation Prices it moves with, and why Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/correlation/ Natural rubber comes mostly from Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam and India, and is priced on exchanges in Singapore, Shanghai and Osaka. Tyre demand, especially in China, weather, tree disease and the price of synthetic rubber move it. Market price **World Bank Pink Sheet: Rubber, TSR20** $/kg · monthly, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 #### What its price moves with Selected link ##### Natural rubber and Styrene-butadiene rubber Monthly changes 0.11 little or none correlation 12-month changes 0.46 moderate correlation Last 5 years 0.16 monthly changes Lead or lag −2 mo Natural rubber tends to lead by 2 months (r 0.40) Price function, Jan 2006 to Sep 2026 Natural rubber ≈ 0.0444 × (Styrene-butadiene rubber)^0.73 R² 0.10 On this fit, a 10% higher styrene-butadiene rubber price goes with a 7.2% higher natural rubber price over the long run. Units: $/kg and index (BLS base period). The fit is loose, so treat the function as a rough guide. Chart: Natural rubber and Styrene-butadiene rubber prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, log scale Both prices rebased to 100 at Jan 2006, on a log scale so equal percentage moves look the same size. Chart: Natural rubber price against Styrene-butadiene rubber price, monthly, log scales, with fitted line Each dot is one month; paler dots are older (2006), darker dots recent (2026); the ringed dot is the latest month. The dashed line is the fitted price function. Both axes are logarithmic. Chemical [SBR Styrene-butadiene rubber](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/sbr/)Substitute 0.11 Styrene-butadiene rubber replaces natural rubber in many tyres and goods, so tyre makers switch when the gap is wide. The SBR series is a US producer price index, so monthly moves correlate at only 0.11, but yearly moves at 0.46. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [BD Butadiene](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/butadiene/)Substitute feedstock 0.43 Butadiene is the main input to synthetic rubber, so it sets the price of natural rubber's rival. The proxy is a US petrochemicals index, and monthly moves correlate at 0.43 and yearly moves at 0.69, largely through oil. moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [Oil Crude oil](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/crude_oil/)Energy price link 0.42 Oil sets the cost of synthetic rubber and moves with the same global demand cycle. Crude oil and rubber correlate at 0.42 for monthly moves and 0.62 for yearly moves, a common driver rather than an input. moderate co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Chemical [CB Carbon black](https://www.materialinsights.org/chemicals/carbon_black/)Co-input in tyres −0.15 Tyres combine natural rubber, synthetic rubber and carbon black as a strengthening filler, so the same tyre demand drives them. The US carbon black index moves on its own oil-based costs: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.15 and yearly moves at 0.13. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts Energy [ICV Combustion road vehicles](https://www.materialinsights.org/energy/e_road_ice/)End-use demand −0.17 Most natural rubber goes into tyres for cars and trucks, so vehicle output matters. The proxy is a US vehicle price index, which tracks car prices rather than tyre demand, and shows little link, slightly negative: monthly moves correlate at minus 0.17. little or none co-movement month to month · 249 months Show charts How to read these numbers **Correlation of monthly changes** (the number in the coloured pill) compares how much each price moved, month by month, since 2006 or the first month both series exist. It runs from −1 to +1: near +1 the two usually rise and fall in the same months, near 0 there is no link, and a negative number means they tend to move in opposite directions. Above 0.7 is strong, 0.4 to 0.7 moderate, 0.2 to 0.4 weak. **12-month changes** compare year-on-year moves, which shows whether two prices share the same cycles even when the month-to-month noise differs. **Price function** is a straight-line fit of the two prices on logarithmic scales: price ≈ k × (partner price)^β. β is how much this price moves, in per cent, for a 1% move in the partner over the whole period, and R² is the share of the variation the fit explains. Two prices that both drift up with inflation can fit well without any real link, so read it together with the monthly correlation. **Lead or lag** checks whether the monthly correlation is clearly higher when one price is shifted by 1 to 6 months. Correlation is not cause. The reasons on each card explain the economic link; the numbers show how strongly it has shown up in prices. Proxy series are US producer price indexes or related prices and can blur the real link. Data: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026; US Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price indexes, IMF primary commodity prices and US EIA prices via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, retrieved November 2026. Calculations by this site. ## Other sections - [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/index.md) - [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/overview/index.md) - [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/extraction/index.md) - [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/production/index.md) - [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/stocks/index.md) - [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/cycles/index.md) - [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/trading/index.md) - [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/movement/index.md) - [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/criticality/index.md) - [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/characteristics/index.md) - [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/emissions/index.md) - [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/links/index.md)