# Natural rubber: Criticality

The wartime cut-off that forced a synthetic crash programme

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/criticality/

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

#### Exposure by region

| Region | Exposure | Share of world output | Share of world imports | Share of world exports | Net trade (US$) | On own critical list | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **US** | High | 0.0% | 11.6% | 0.6% | −$1.73 bn | No | No production and the second-largest importer (11.6% of world value in 2024); natural rubber was its largest single import before 1941 (UN Comtrade; Yergin). |
| **EU** | High | 0.0% | 18.0% | 5.2% | −$2.10 bn | No | 100% import reliant; natural rubber dropped off the EU critical list in 2023 when its supply risk fell to 0.9, and its deforestation regulation now covers rubber (EU CRM 2023). |
| **India** | Medium | 5.9% | 6.7% | 0.1% | −$1.04 bn | No | Sixth-largest producer and second-largest consumer, short by about 5 lakh t a year and importing 6.7% of world value in 2024 (Rubber Board; UN Comtrade). |
| **China** | High | 5.9% | 25.2% | 0.2% | −$3.92 bn | No | Largest importer (25.2% of value, 2024) and sixth-largest grower (5.9% of output), with state reserves and plantations in Hainan and Yunnan (UN Comtrade; FAOSTAT). |
| **Japan** | High | 0.0% | 8.0% | 0.0% | −$1.26 bn | No | No production; imports 8.0% of world value (2024) for Bridgestone, Sumitomo and Yokohama tyre plants (UN Comtrade). |
| **Latin America** | Medium | 3.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% | −$433.4 m | no list | The tree's home, but South American leaf blight keeps Brazil a net importer (1.9% of world import value, 2024); Guatemala supplies 2.7% of world output (UN Comtrade; EU CRM 2023). |
| **Middle East** | Low | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +$0 | no list | No production; Turkey's tyre industry imports 3.1% of world value (2024) (UN Comtrade). |
| **Australia** | Low | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | +$0 | No | No production and only small imports; not among the top importers (UN Comtrade 2024). |

 Exposure rating: **High** when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); **Medium** for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; **Low** for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: FAOSTAT, 2024. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

The EU scores natural rubber with high economic importance (6.0) but a supply risk of only 0.9, below its threshold, so it is not listed as critical despite 100% import reliance and 2% recycling. The US 2025 and India 2023 lists exclude it. History argues for caution: Yergin shows Japan's capture of Southeast Asia cut off 90% of natural rubber exported to the United States, forcing a crash synthetic programme. Synthetic rubbers substitute widely, but not fully in demanding uses such as heavy-truck and aircraft tyres.
 EU 2023 Not critical US 2025 list No India 2023 list No Production HHI 1,597 moderately concentrated

#### EU 2023 assessment

Chart: EU 2023 criticality: supply risk against economic importance
 Each dot is a material assessed by the EU in 2023. The shaded corner is the critical zone (supply risk ≥ 1.0, economic importance ≥ 2.8). Natural rubber: supply risk 0.9, economic importance 6. EU import reliance, extraction 100% EU recycling input rate 2%

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/stocks/index.md)
- [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/cycles/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/movement/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/rubber/links/index.md)