# Scandium: Cycles

Why scandium prices have drifted down for years

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

Asian Metal's ex-works China price for 99.99% oxide has fallen steadily, from $890-1,000/kg in 2021 to about $640 in 2025. Metal ingot stayed near $5,200-5,500/kg. Aluminium-scandium master alloy fell from $42 to $30/kg. Falling prices suggest capacity has grown faster than demand. Scandium shows a classic chicken-and-egg problem. Users hesitate to design it in without reliable supply, and producers hesitate to invest without buyers. Government offtakes now aim to break the deadlock.

#### US price, Scandium metal ingot, 99.999%, ex-works China (Asian Metal)
 2021 5,300 2022 5,400 2023 5,500 2024 5,200 2025 5,200 dollars per kilogram. USGS MCS 2026; 2025 is an estimate.

#### Super-cycles in scandium

Scandium has no long price history like base metals. It is a tiny market, about 60 t of oxide a year, with prices set in private deals and reported by Asian Metal and USGS. Prices have drifted down since 2021 as Chinese and new Western supply grew faster than demand. The main swings have come from policy: Soviet military use, Chinese export controls in April 2025, and Western stockpiling and subsidies. A big new user, such as wide use of Al-Sc alloys in cars or aircraft, could change the market, but that has not happened yet.

1. Late Soviet era to 2000s

The USSR used Al-Sc alloys in military aircraft and stockpiled scandium; after 1991, Russian and Ukrainian stocks supplied the small Western market. No reliable price series exists for this period in the sources used.

not available in the sources used

2. 2021-2025

Rio Tinto entered with 3 t/yr against a market of about 20 t/yr, and Chinese output grew. Oxide prices fell steadily while metal held up.

Oxide (99.99%, ex-works China) fell from $890-1,000/kg (2021) to $640/kg (2025); metal ingot stayed near $5,200-5,500/kg; Al-Sc master alloy fell from $42/kg to $30/kg (Asian Metal via USGS MCS 2026)

3. 2025-2026

China added scandium to export controls in April 2025. The US moved to stockpile, and Canada funded Rio Tinto's expansion to 9 t/yr. Prices inside China stayed low because capacity exceeds demand.

DLA plan: more than 6,000 kg of oxide over 5 years for up to $40 million, which implies up to about $6,700/kg (indicative, basis: $40 million / 6,000 kg), roughly ten times the 2025 China oxide price

#### What drives the cycle

- **Chinese export controls.** China is the leading producer; licensing since April 2025 splits prices inside and outside China.
- **Fuel-cell deployment for data centres and backup power.** SOFC electrolytes are a principal use, so stationary fuel-cell orders drive demand.
- **Aerospace adoption of Al-Sc alloys.** Qualification in airframes or space structures would add steady demand.
- **Government stockpiling and subsidies.** US DLA purchases, Department of War awards and Canada Growth Fund support set Western supply.
- **Host plant economics (TiO2 and HPAL nickel).** By-product output depends on titanium and nickel plant throughput.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Scandium oxide 99.99% price, ex-works China** | Main reported price | Asian Metal; summarised yearly in USGS MCS |
| **China scandium export licences and volumes** | Signals availability outside China | China Ministry of Commerce; China customs |
| **US DLA Annual Materials Plan and awards** | Shows Western stockpile buying | Defense Logistics Agency Strategic Materials |
| **Stationary SOFC installations** | Main demand driver | Fuel-cell company reports |
| **New Western capacity (Sorel-Tracy, Nyngan, Elk Creek)** | Supply outside China | Rio Tinto and project company releases; USGS MCS |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/scandium/links/index.md)