# Fishmeal & shrimp: Criticality

Why a warm current off Peru is a global supply risk

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/criticality/

What this tab covers How exposed economies are to a supply disruption: the EU, US and India listings, the concentration score, and a quantified exposure for the US, EU, India, China, Japan, Latin America, the Middle East and Australia. Where the EU scored it, a chart of supply risk against economic importance, with import reliance, recycling input and substitutes.

#### Exposure by region

| Region | Exposure | Share of world output | Share of world imports | Share of world exports | Net trade (US$) | On own critical list | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| **US** | High | – | 15.5% | 0.8% | −$5.83 bn | No | Largest shrimp importer (26.7% of world value in 2024, UN Comtrade) and the top market for India's seafood, about 36% of export value in FY2025 by calculation from MPEDA figures. |
| **EU** | High | – | 39.3% | 18.6% | −$8.51 bn | No | Net importer: Spain (6.6%), France (4.2%) and Italy (3.5%) buy shrimp, Sweden and Poland handle salmon trade, and Denmark supplies 7.0% of fishmeal exports (UN Comtrade 2024). |
| **India** | Low | – | 0.0% | 12.0% | +$4.55 bn | No | Second-largest shrimp exporter (26.5% of world value in 2024, UN Comtrade), with seafood exports of 1.70 Mt and $7.45 billion in FY2025 (MPEDA). |
| **China** | High | – | 22.3% | 1.0% | −$8.44 bn | No | Largest fishmeal importer (52.4% of world value) and second-largest shrimp importer (26.2%) in 2024, and the largest seafood market for India by volume (UN Comtrade; MPEDA). |
| **Japan** | High | – | 4.1% | 0.0% | −$1.63 bn | No | Net importer, with 7.1% of world shrimp imports and 4.6% of fishmeal imports by value in 2024 (UN Comtrade). |
| **Latin America** | Low | – | 3.2% | 30.4% | +$10.3 bn | no list | Ecuador is the largest shrimp exporter (38.3%), Peru the largest fishmeal exporter (31.6%) and Chile a major salmon (6.9%) and fishmeal (9.5%) exporter (UN Comtrade 2024). |
| **Middle East** | Low | – | 0.3% | 0.6% | +$89.2 m | no list | Importer region; India shipped 32,784 t of frozen shrimp there in FY2025 (MPEDA, via World Fishing). |
| **Australia** | Low | – | 0.7% | 0.5% | −$54.1 m | No | Not among the top six traders of shrimp, salmon or fishmeal in 2024 (UN Comtrade). |

 Exposure rating: **High** when the region is a net importer whose import share is at least three times its share of world output (or, for farm goods, it produces under 70% of what it consumes); **Medium** for other net importers (or 70-95% self-sufficiency), raised to High when world supply is highly concentrated in another country; **Low** for net exporters or self-sufficient regions. Net importer status uses tonnage where reported, otherwise value. Output: n/a. Trade: UN Comtrade 2024 (EU = sum of member states, including intra-EU trade). Critical lists: US 2025, EU 2024/1252, India 2023, China 2016 strategic minerals, Japan METI, Australia 2024.

These products are not on any critical raw materials list. Their risks are ecological and climatic. Fishmeal supply hinges on one fishery off Peru, so a strong El Niño can sharply cut world supply. Shrimp farms face disease outbreaks and have been linked to mangrove loss. Salmon farming battles sea lice. Fisheries can also clash with mining: Alaska's fishing industry fought the Pebble copper mine near Bristol Bay; salmon fishing contributed nearly $310 million to the state's economy in 2019 (Scheyder, pdf pp. 172-174).
 EU 2023 Not assessed US 2025 list No India 2023 list No

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/stocks/index.md)
- [Cycles](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/cycles/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/movement/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/links/index.md)