# Fishmeal & shrimp: Cycles

The fishmeal price spike that doubled in five years

Source page: https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/cycles/

What this tab covers Price history and what drives booms and busts, including this commodity's super-cycles, the drivers behind them and the metrics to track. It charts monthly prices (World Bank) with a switch to inflation-adjusted annual prices; where there is no World Bank series it uses USGS US prices.

The World Bank fishmeal price hit $2,916 per tonne in September 2026, its ten-year and post-2000 high. That is 65% above $1,769 a year earlier and nearly double the $1,483 of five years ago. The ten-year low was $1,298. In real 2010 dollars the annual price rose from $1,139 in 2010 to about $1,590 in both 2013 and 2023, then eased to $1,470 in 2025. Booms follow El Niño quota cuts in Peru and strong Chinese feed demand. Soybean meal is the main substitute, which limits prices over time.
 Latest (2026-09) 2,916 $/mt vs 1 year ago +65% vs 5 years ago +97% vs 10 years ago +90%

#### Fish meal price

Chart: Fish meal monthly price

Chart: Fish meal annual real price
 Deflated by the World Bank manufactures unit value index (2010 = 100). Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), October 2026 release.

#### Super-cycles in fishmeal & shrimp

Seafood as a whole has no single cycle, but its traded parts move sharply. Fishmeal prices follow the Peruvian anchoveta catch, which collapses in strong El Niño years, and long-run demand from Chinese aquaculture; the World Bank fishmeal price rose from annual averages of about $320-545/t in the 1980s to a record $2,916/t in September 2026. Shrimp prices rose with scarcity of wild shrimp until farming spread, peaked during Asian disease outbreaks in 2014, then fell as Ecuador and India expanded. Salmon prices follow licence-capped supply growth in Norway and Chile.

1. 1996-1998

A strong El Niño cut the Peruvian anchoveta catch.

World Bank fishmeal $539/t (Aug 1996) to $721/t (Dec 1997)

2. 2005-2013

Fast growth of Chinese fish and shrimp farming lifted demand while catches were capped.

fishmeal $651/t (Aug 2005) to $1,383/t (Jul 2007) and $1,926/t (Jan 2013) (World Bank)

3. 1960-1982 and 2013-2014 (shrimp)

Wild shrimp scarcity raised prices before farming spread; later, early mortality syndrome devastated Asian shrimp farms.

US wholesale shrimp $1.43/kg (Jan 1960) to $14.88/kg (Dec 1982); record $19.25/kg (Aug 2014) (World Bank)

4. 2016-2023 (shrimp)

Ecuador and India expanded farming, flooding markets.

US wholesale shrimp from $15.86/kg (Jul 2021) to $8.60/kg (Oct 2023), when the World Bank series ended

5. 2025-2026

Fishmeal supply tightened; Peru's exports fell from 1.26 Mt in 2024 to 1.03 Mt in 2025 (USDA PSD).

fishmeal $1,581/t (Jan 2025) to a record $2,916/t (Sep 2026), up 65% in a year (World Bank)

#### What drives the cycle

- **El Niño and the anchoveta quota.** Warm water off Peru disperses anchoveta and cuts quotas, the single biggest swing in fishmeal supply.
- **Aquaculture feed demand.** China takes 52.4% of world fishmeal import value (UN Comtrade 2024); shrimp and salmon farm growth raises demand.
- **Farm disease.** Outbreaks such as early mortality syndrome and white spot can cut a country's shrimp output for years.
- **Trade policy.** High US tariffs from August 2025 caused volatility in shrimp trade (FAO GLOBEFISH); the US takes 26.7% of world shrimp imports.
- **Ecuador's expansion.** Ecuador's 38.3% share of shrimp export value sets the price floor that Indian farmers compete against.

#### Metrics to track

| Metric | Why it matters | Where to track it |
|---|---|---|
| **Peru anchoveta season quota and catch** | Main determinant of fishmeal supply | Peru Ministry of Production (PRODUCE) and IMARPE |
| **ENSO outlook** | Early warning of El Niño | NOAA Climate Prediction Center |
| **India seafood exports by product and market** | Tracks India's shrimp volumes and US exposure | MPEDA export statistics |
| **Quarterly shrimp market analysis** | Global supply, demand and price overview | FAO GLOBEFISH |
| **Norwegian salmon export prices and volumes** | Weekly price signal for salmon | Norwegian Seafood Council; Statistics Norway weekly salmon price |
| **World Bank fishmeal price** | Long monthly series | World Bank Pink Sheet |

## Other sections

- [Summary](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/index.md)
- [Overview](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/overview/index.md)
- [Correlation](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/correlation/index.md)
- [Extraction](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/extraction/index.md)
- [Production](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/production/index.md)
- [Stocks](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/stocks/index.md)
- [Trading](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/trading/index.md)
- [Movement](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/movement/index.md)
- [Criticality](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/criticality/index.md)
- [Characteristics](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/characteristics/index.md)
- [Emissions](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/emissions/index.md)
- [Relationships](https://www.materialinsights.org/commodities/seafood/links/index.md)